FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
1870 20 30
Discussion open to everyone, are appreciated your views, comments and suggestions.
Comment: The Fed has confirmed our expectations and the RISK 3 seems to have been the favorite. Now, the future dynamics are very clear (Q1-Q2 2016), and these elements will help us to analyze the next trade (yesterday we entered "short"). Today will be important to evaluate further confirmation, but the technical picture looks very clear. Good trading to all!
The monthly 5th. Wave begins today.
Thank you for the question,SignalSwiss! I like fundamental talking as same as I like technical analysis, drawing charts, drawing EWave etc.
R1: Since Mar. 2015 when the DAX topped EURO bottomed we have had for 8 months risk off already. Also before that, since Dec. 2014 when weighted JPY bottomed, we have had for 12 months risk off too. From my point of view, FRB wanted to push the inflation a little bit in 2015 but JPY failed them and now EURO tried but I think it could fail them too.
R2: It’s priced in, I mean the inflation is already priced in. The stock market pull back is priced in. Who wanted to sell stocks have sold them all in Aug. 2015 because of China’s huge risk they were afraid at that moment. Now Yuan is obviously devaluating and it’ll keep stable after IMF checked assets situations of PBOC (“healthy" from IMF).
R3: Of cause a dovish hike, less than 0.25% or just 0.25% and a dovish annoucement with a word that FRB could cut rates in 2016 too, depends on data bala- bala- bala…
All above: I’m expecting a new DAX bull cycle in 2016 or a new higher trading range and the Commodities drop to 2008’s low. Some of commodities will drop to 1970’s-1980’s low finally.
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Concetrate on this : ECB doesn't want high valued Euro, and FED doesn't want high valued USD. The war is basically around that idea. So today we will see if the war still continues...
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Well I think a bit of all three. I think we see a mid term strong DX. I am still bearish oil and very bearish equities. And go go go Yen, Gold an Silver (after bit of smoke clears).
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Just want to note that i miss in all discussions about FED/ECB the china factor. Rate hike or not isn't the most important factor, when it comes to what will happen in the near future.
If china - as todays "factory" - faces economic bottlenecks, then the whole world has a problem. FED decision could become the excusion for a stock market crash, but the real reason is the bearish world economy as well as the wrong/criminal CB behaviour of the last decade.
Not to forget the exhaustive window dressing in each and every eco stat around the world.
I expect a nearterm more or less dramatic crash of all stocks world-wide, this time unstoppable by CB's.
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MuratUrsavas Farbenspiel
So if this would be the case what could be the safe harbor? USD? Gold? Any ideas?
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any plans for tomorrow ? is it possible to have that 500pips a day ? throw some ideas in guys
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I've been thinking (2)
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I like rish 2. but Dont have anything to back it up
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As we have all seen it is very difficult to project short term market reactions after the FOMC meetings. Something I think that is being missed is the fact that the ECB is indeed still working very closely with the US Central bank. In fact, it is my opinion that the last ECB action was exactly what the FED wanted in order to let some steam roll off of the dollar. The world can not afford a stronger Dollar going forward. The rise of the Dollar must be managed very carefully so that inflation can become a reality. The world needs inflation to happen. If the old statement of "dont fight the FED" is true then I think one must be prepared for more realistic inflation, at least as far as how the number is tracked.
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