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R1: Since Mar. 2015 when the DAX topped EURO bottomed we have had for 8 months risk off already. Also before that, since Dec. 2014 when weighted JPY bottomed, we have had for 12 months risk off too. From my point of view, FRB wanted to push the inflation a little bit in 2015 but JPY failed them and now EURO tried but I think it could fail them too.
R2: It’s priced in, I mean the inflation is already priced in. The stock market pull back is priced in. Who wanted to sell stocks have sold them all in Aug. 2015 because of China’s huge risk they were afraid at that moment. Now Yuan is obviously devaluating and it’ll keep stable after IMF checked assets situations of PBOC (“healthy" from IMF).
R3: Of cause a dovish hike, less than 0.25% or just 0.25% and a dovish annoucement with a word that FRB could cut rates in 2016 too, depends on data bala- bala- bala…
All above: I’m expecting a new DAX bull cycle in 2016 or a new higher trading range and the Commodities drop to 2008’s low. Some of commodities will drop to 1970’s-1980’s low finally.
If china - as todays "factory" - faces economic bottlenecks, then the whole world has a problem. FED decision could become the excusion for a stock market crash, but the real reason is the bearish world economy as well as the wrong/criminal CB behaviour of the last decade.
Not to forget the exhaustive window dressing in each and every eco stat around the world.
I expect a nearterm more or less dramatic crash of all stocks world-wide, this time unstoppable by CB's.