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Discussion open to everyone, are appreciated your views, comments and suggestions.
Comment: The Fed has confirmed our expectations and the RISK 3 seems to have been the favorite. Now, the future dynamics are very clear (Q1-Q2 2016), and these elements will help us to analyze the next trade (yesterday we entered "short"). Today will be important to evaluate further confirmation, but the technical picture looks very clear. Good trading to all!
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I don't know about the RISK 1, but I guess we could face potentially RISK 2 and RISK 3. As for RISK 3, I'm somehow expecting 10 to 15 basis points. It's just a silly hunch. Or they can hike 25 base points as expected, but talk quite dovish about 2016.
+3 Reply
SignalSwiss TOP MuratUrsavas
"...but talk quite dovish about 2016" ...This could be the big "unknown factor". Thanks for your opinion Murat!
+3 Reply
for me i prefer risk 3, because with oil price down so inflation in US will lower. Because of that US will not rate hike. But i dont know if the market will go sell USD or not, because when we see market movement couple weeks a go i think market already price in for NO RATE HIKE. Well thats my opinion
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Traders might still be scratching their heads as to why the US dollar sold off from August, in tandem with stock markets worldwide. When Mario Draghi disappointed markets by announcing an underwhelming stimulus expansion, the USD sold off rapidly at the same time as markets plummeted. In both cases, it seemed almost as if the US was no longer the safe haven of choice as it has been for much of the time.... There would be many reflections to do about it.
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A strong USD will hurt US economy. I remember last December GS and Co were all talking about Eur/USD parity. At the end of the day none of them were right. So like Murat I think FED and BCE are at war, and no one want a strong currency. Something could change the statu quo between the 2 central banks: China and the Yuan
+5 Reply
JFinTrade AndrewHook
yes, I agree
+1 Reply
it will be 25bp or nothing a token or gesture will show they have no clear plan and bowing to pressure to push up rates i believe the last month and the fall out of the commodities markets and the marked slow down in global economies and possible implications for 2016 is going to make for a very interesting discussion and i am going out on a limb and going to say policy will be unchanged the global economy is fragile and they will be cautious
+6 Reply
I think there is going to be hike, it is going to be a symbolic one I am afraid, less than 25bp. there is going to be some hawkish talk about the economy in broad terms and in specific of unemployment, they are going to address that although is not a big concern, the emerging markets still not showing the improvement they should be on and therefore they are going to remain cautious and they will all agree to revise the rate interest as data keeps coming in and adjusting the interest rates according to the data that comes, she is going to address that they are reacting quickly to the data and will continue to do this. We have to see what the reaction is as it happens
+4 Reply
Today, just one day before the announcement may give some clues about trader sentiment. Just may be. I will be watching especially USDCAD pair. Good trades.
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As I guessed, the EM's are oversold and they are restoring some losses. Turkey's BIST100 gained 4.32% today as of now. USDTRY is also looking bearish even though the DXY have bounced back. Could be a sign for tomorrow. (Some of the BIST100's gain could be related to CrudeOil)
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As we have all seen it is very difficult to project short term market reactions after the FOMC meetings. Something I think that is being missed is the fact that the ECB is indeed still working very closely with the US Central bank. In fact, it is my opinion that the last ECB action was exactly what the FED wanted in order to let some steam roll off of the dollar. The world can not afford a stronger Dollar going forward. The rise of the Dollar must be managed very carefully so that inflation can become a reality. The world needs inflation to happen. If the old statement of "dont fight the FED" is true then I think one must be prepared for more realistic inflation, at least as far as how the number is tracked.
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I like rish 2. but Dont have anything to back it up
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I've been thinking (2)
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any plans for tomorrow ? is it possible to have that 500pips a day ? throw some ideas in guys
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Just want to note that i miss in all discussions about FED/ECB the china factor. Rate hike or not isn't the most important factor, when it comes to what will happen in the near future.
If china - as todays "factory" - faces economic bottlenecks, then the whole world has a problem. FED decision could become the excusion for a stock market crash, but the real reason is the bearish world economy as well as the wrong/criminal CB behaviour of the last decade.
Not to forget the exhaustive window dressing in each and every eco stat around the world.
I expect a nearterm more or less dramatic crash of all stocks world-wide, this time unstoppable by CB's.
+2 Reply
MuratUrsavas Farbenspiel
So if this would be the case what could be the safe harbor? USD? Gold? Any ideas?
+2 Reply
Well I think a bit of all three. I think we see a mid term strong DX. I am still bearish oil and very bearish equities. And go go go Yen, Gold an Silver (after bit of smoke clears).
+1 Reply
Concetrate on this : ECB doesn't want high valued Euro, and FED doesn't want high valued USD. The war is basically around that idea. So today we will see if the war still continues...
+2 Reply
Thank you for the question,SignalSwiss! I like fundamental talking as same as I like technical analysis, drawing charts, drawing EWave etc.
R1: Since Mar. 2015 when the DAX topped EURO bottomed we have had for 8 months risk off already. Also before that, since Dec. 2014 when weighted JPY bottomed, we have had for 12 months risk off too. From my point of view, FRB wanted to push the inflation a little bit in 2015 but JPY failed them and now EURO tried but I think it could fail them too.
R2: It’s priced in, I mean the inflation is already priced in. The stock market pull back is priced in. Who wanted to sell stocks have sold them all in Aug. 2015 because of China’s huge risk they were afraid at that moment. Now Yuan is obviously devaluating and it’ll keep stable after IMF checked assets situations of PBOC (“healthy" from IMF).
R3: Of cause a dovish hike, less than 0.25% or just 0.25% and a dovish annoucement with a word that FRB could cut rates in 2016 too, depends on data bala- bala- bala…
All above: I’m expecting a new DAX bull cycle in 2016 or a new higher trading range and the Commodities drop to 2008’s low. Some of commodities will drop to 1970’s-1980’s low finally.
+2 Reply
The monthly 5th. Wave begins today.
Looking big picture, FRB votes soon anything is possible.
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