Stelian

Weekly EUR/USD Review

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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The more news there are, the more volatility there is, the better the trading potential. This is one of these weeks, so here's some of the main things on the agenda:
  • Monday - ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • Wednesday - FOMC meeting / Final EU CPI
  • Thursday - Final meeting for Greece's deal approval / US CPI

From the EUR side: I remain bearish for the coming week, as the Greece issue is to be resolved at the week's end. Therefore it's more unlikely for Draghi to more hawkish (or less dovish to be more accurate, almost no one is hawkish these days), as he will remain relatively hedged with such forward guidance, should there be a bigger issue with Greece (which is of course a possibility). i.e. a bigger Greece issue can lead to a slower economy (or at least sentiment wise, in reality it may not make such a big difference in my view).

From the USD side: Well, FOMC. Not much to say there.

Either way, I find it foolish to try and predict so many key events.

Technically, the pair has shown some resistance along 1.14 and is gaping lower on Monday. If it breaks the previous week's support of 1.108, it could continue down to the lower end of the bold channel. Patience for the long trade to set itself up is what I will be going for, as I am following the monthly and weekly bullish trend lines. Some weeks are better off without trading.

For the more risk-loving ones, a starter position can be placed such that the risk / return is above 2.3 on T1 (Target 1) and above 6 on T2.
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