RobertPapon

Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 07.15.15

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Summary Tuesday:
Today in the morning there was a test level of 1.0964. After reaching the minimum for the game joined the demand side, which led to increases in the vicinity of 1.1076. The euro             was supported by a better reading of the ZEW in Germany and considerably worse US data.
Currently, the course is located around 1.1005 and still do not have a fixed direction in a broader horizon.

On Monday, an agreement was reached with Greece, but the market remains skeptical. The agreement was worked out but an aid program may not be sufficient. However, before it enters into force, it must be approved by the Greek Parliament. Here the matter is not so simple, because the ruling Syriza may not have a majority in parliament, which will lead to early elections. It all pregnant common currency and even worse data from the US, they are not able to change that. Keep in mind that the US economy is in far better shape than European and temporarily worse data do not change this view.

The economic calendar for Wednesday:

8:45 EUR French CPI             (m / m) (Jun)
8:45 EUR HICP in France (m / m) (Jun)
14:30 USD Core PPI (m / m) (Jun)
14:30 USD manufacturing index for New York             (Jul)
14:30 USD PPI (m / m) (Jun)
EUR Eurogroup meeting
15:15 USD Industrial Production (m / m) (Jun)
16:00 USD Fed Statement by the President, Janet Yellen -
18:25 USD FOMC member, Mester
20:00 USD Beige Book
21:00 USD FOMC member's speech, Williams

Tomorrow there is Janet Yellen, who will present a biannual report on the subject. monetary policy before the Commission for the House of Representatives Financial Services in Washington, USA. The market certainly will try to detect the expression, the chances of a possible interest rate hike in the US. Tomorrow we will also PPI, which can give a strong impetus to the EUR / USD pair.
Tomorrow will also vote in Greek parliament accepting or rejecting various reforms in the aid program.

The forecast for Wednesday:
After today's declines in the vicinity of 1.0964 and a failed test of major resistance at 1.1080, we can assume that the dominant party at the moment is the supply side. What this speaks? Breaking up the weaker data from the US and a quick return to the vicinity of 1.10 may suggest that the supply will take yet another chance to break the 1.0964 level and reach the 1.0916 level. In the area of support at 1.0916 should the game turn up the demand side. If, however, and the support will be broken it falls await us in the direction of 1,0865-80 and 1,0818-25 (May 27 lows).

Keep in mind that the market is high volatility and an alternative market may lead to increases in the vicinity of 1.1080 and in case of breaking the resistance will test the resistance zone at 1,1110-30.

In my view, the downward variant (according to technical analysis ) is more reliable but we can not forget about the macro data that can have a significant effect on the price of a currency pair discussed.
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