ICmarkets

Our take on the EUR this week...

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
124 0 0
Weekly gain/loss: - 81 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.1149
Weekly opening price: 1.1152

Weekly view: From this viewpoint, we can see that last week’s weekly candle turned bearish from the underside of a major resistance area coming in at 1.1533-1.1278. Erasing all of the prior week’s gains, this bearish move could trigger further selling in this market this week. The next downside target to have an eye on falls in around the 1.0970 region, followed closely by a major support seen at 1.0819.

Daily view: The story on the daily chart shows that price is now seen deep within a support area drawn from 1.1224-1.1072, but as we already mentioned in previous reports, there’s been little noteworthy bullish intent registered from this barrier as of yet. Perhaps the most compelling factor here is that the candles are in the process of completing an AB=CD bull pattern (black arrows), which terminates around the lower edge of the above said support area, and converges with a trendline support extended from the low 1.0516.

H4 view: A brief look at recent dealings on the H4 chart reveals that Friday’s US CPI             data came in hotter than expected. This, as you can see, sent the EUR screaming lower. Both the 1.12 handle and the trendline support taken from the low 1.1045 were taken out, with price ending the week closing just ahead of a demand base seen at 1.1131-1.1143.

Direction for the week: Pressure from the overhead weekly resistance area will likely push the shared currency down to the lower edge of the current daily support area, which, as we mentioned above, converges with an AB=CD bull point and a trendline support. While the weekly chart suggests further selling beyond this point, we do expect at least a bounce from this area to be seen.

Direction for today: In that there’s very little market-moving data on the docket today, we may see price consolidate around the current H4 demand zone.

Our suggestions: After analyzing all three timeframes, we see two points of interest going into trade this week:

1. Assuming price bounces from nearby H4 demand, looking to short from 1.12 is valid, in our opinion, due to merging with the recently broken H4 trendline, and also not forgetting that the both higher-timeframe charts suggest lower prices could be seen this week.

2. A break below the current H4 demand zone would likely place the H4 support at 1.1075 and the 1.11 band on the hit list. Not only is this a good take-profit area for any shorts in this market, it is also a fantastic barrier to look for longs. It sits within the depths of the aforementioned daily support area, as well as merging with both the above noted daily trendline support and a deep H4 88.6% Fib support at 1.1081.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.1075/1.11 strong-looking buy zone which could, dependent on the time of day and approach, be sufficient enough to condone an entry without waiting for lower timeframe confirmation (Stop loss: 1.1060).
• Sells: 1.12 region H4 bearish close required (Stop loss: beyond the trigger candle).
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