Implied Volatility On Verge Of Breakout Favoring Lower EURUSD

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
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Simple techs favor EURUSD             momentum carrying the pair lower. EURUSD             has fallen below the 200 hma , 10 & 21 dma as well as daily RSI remains bearish . Additionally, price has been sideways since March 13th after a one-way market went on hold.

Additionally, 3-month implied volatility on EURUSD             looks like it could be breaking out higher. This is similar to a move seen in 2007-2008. The break higher aligned with EURUSD's fall from 1.6000 to the low 1.2000s. Taken together, Implied Volatility could be seen as a leading indicator of more aggressive moves to come while technical analysis favors trend continuation, which is EUR bearish & USD bullish .

ST             invalidation could be seen at the 200-hma near 1.1130. A move to this level would mean a strong gap fill. The cleanest fundamental backing to this view is the push higher in Eurodollar futures , which seem to be pricing in no rate hike by the Fed this Fall. If Euro's struggles remain, the Fed no-hike could weigh heavier on USDJPY             .

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