$EURUSD Weekly Outlook - To Summarize - Short

CoT has the commercial banks shorting the EURUSD still. Yeah, they added a few long positions this weel, but that was to get back to a level they wanted to add more shorts. They/ve been shorting since the height of the Pandemic swing. so for the Central banks to start being profitable, the price will have to be below 1.13500. If you draw a fib from the start of the EURUSD commercial shorts to the height of the commercial shorts, you can see it unfold in the fib extensions where price wants to reach.

I personally like to see a bit of a larger retracement to the green box notated in this chart during the London/NY session before aggressively going short.

Plus theirs divergence in the 10 year bonds between the currencies. As most are going up, the EUR is taking a dip as of recent.

DIVERGENCE IN 10 YEAR BONDS

Strong Bear tendencies this week. It will be London op and NY open to find the best setups to go short.

Comment:

It went into the retracement box I wanted to see. I was a little late to the reaction but I did take action and decided to short once it hit the 70.5% retracement of that fib.

Trade active:

My only reservation is the breaker at 1.18430. I do believe if it does reach that point, I will be out of the current trade but I would then re-enter that that level.

Trade closed: target reached:

As I realized the short trade of the day had reach it's -62% retracement. I decided to close the trade as it was starting to retrace possibly looking for a higher price for the smart money to add to their shorts. I'll be paying close attention to fibs to see when the next best possible short it. I pmay have pulled out prematurely but I grabbed 13 pips out of this one so I can't complain.

Comment:

-62% extension I meant. Not retracement. And I had a few positions sprinkled throughout there but the average was 13 pips.