EURUSD-10 reasons for a long bias

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2848 15 50
Hello, i was re-analyzing my long term view on this pair. Market always changes and we must be prepared for any scenario. The price action is always right and not our conditioned opinions or beliefs.

Here are 10 reasons for a long bias on this pair.

1) Trendline support
2) AB=CD pattern (orange line)
3) MACD overextended and crossing
4) RSI leaving an extremely oversold level
5) Perfect bullish butterfly (first target around 1.25 is still waiting!!)
6) Bollinger band duplication. If this happens price should meet the middle of BB 90% of times
7) Engulfing bullish candle
8) Price reacting to middle of clone (see below)
9) A series of HH, HL forming (weekly chart)
10) Possible EW leading diagonal forming

All these reasons are telling us that price has bottomed and the fundamental factors also support this bias (USD weakning, no rate hike untill middle of 2016)

I agree EW count is not clear but doesnt matter, as traders we should have other tools we can use on a given scenario. This does not mean EW is useless off course, if someone thinks so thats ok, i dont like to talk too much and will not try to convince anybody here.

This will be my long term roadmap now. The price action is choppy on D1 and H4 chart, right now i prefer to trade other pairs and will be looking for an entry here if i see a clear setup.

Best regards.

thank you for the analysis. the analysis is very detail with lots of reasoning. i agree that the analysis would probably turn out highly likely the way you present naturally. however, there is one factor which is the QE form ECB that may interrupt this natural development. what are your thoughts there? ^^
FullTimeTrader greediwolf
Hello, i agree with your fundamental information. I see a leading diagonal forming and after that usually price makes a deep retracement (could be after the QE) but i think price should not make new lows.
+1 Reply
greediwolf FullTimeTrader
^^ i agree. it is hard to tell at this moment it is very unclear. i just try to put together an analysis for a downside scenario. seems like this is will take a couple months to get real. just throw some ideas. brainstorming. ^^
Bearish Butterfly forming.
I have a different count, but agree on target and main direction.
I do like the butterfly and AB=CD, very classy.
FullTimeTrader IvanLabrie
Yes, sometimes simple is best. There are many different and valid EW counts from very experienced ellioticians, so in this case i prefer to use other tools. Agree with your previous post on this pair.
IvanLabrie PRO FullTimeTrader
Traditional EW is prone to that. Price action and a more global perspective on technical charts as well as fundamentals scream long, so, let's do that.
I like the reason no9, "A series of HH, HL forming", I think it is quite enough to confirm.
FullTimeTrader MIchaelTran
Hello, yes technical analysis is very handy and enough in such cases like this.
+1 Reply
When yow have a look at the 2 MONTH FRAME:
-Distinct Hammer appear at 127% Fibonacci projection.
-Double tweezer retesting the AB=CD at 1.0800 area.
Hello, thanks for sharing, the hammer is very a clear signal of a trend change, especially at key support. Regards.
not convinced unless it 1650 with vol... 1300/10 supp area need to watch....
mkdeep04 mkdeep04
unless it brk 1650 with vol
Hello, its depends on each trader, some are conservative and prefer to wait for a confirmation. For me 16.50 is too far, i prefer to anticipate considering the reasons above. Regards.
Thats what I think

Hello, this idea is long term, the main message is EURUSD has bottomed and will make not make new lows under 1.05. Right now the price action on D1 and H4 charts side is sideways, we can find short and long setups there but very tricky to trade on choppy markets, i prefer other pairs right now and will be looking this closely. Regards.
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