As I highlighted in my previous analyses (e.g. bit.ly/1dKbNYm) the Euro is being at an important level, which is a 61.8 Fibo retracement of prior major downswing. The Eur confirmed the level by testing it once and now retested it with a false break, which can be a sign of weakness and a short signal also. In terms of my unconventional trading patterns, this market behaviour can be described by a pattern called T4B, which in context with Fibo levels makes a powerful tool to future market direction assesment. Please, be aware, that this is actually no investing or trading advice. This serves for educational purposes only.
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Cheers! Petr
Comments
Petr_Suchanek
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Ok, the retest is here, I put a small size. Let us see, what unfolds..., clip2net.com/s/6uNbg1
Gerasimos
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Hello Petr, nice analysis! whats up with the 1.3893 spike yesterday?
Petr_Suchanek
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Well, personally I am waiting for a slight retrace up to the resistence to put short there, let us see. It might be a nice opportunity for a swing trade in the big picture.Please add a comment… Positive feedback and constructive criticism are important to authors and the community.
Gerasimos
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I wasnt able to enter my short during the spike day yesterday :( but I am waiting fro retrace as well. Looking to short it and the reshort it and reshort it for the longer term. of course this will happen according to the price action confirmation, I also think that the ECB press conference might be the beginning of the downtrend, If Draghi will be dovish.
Gerasimos
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So your trade will be For the Long term as well? 1 year horizon more or less?
Petr_Suchanek
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I am a short-term trader in nature, so I will try to pick the entry for the downmove now with a very small size and then based on this macro-pattern I will wait for any opportunity to add shorts like intraday or short-term swings..., hope this helps.
Petr_Suchanek
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I would like to add one more thing..., I am still short biased in Eur. The only thing, which will change my bias from short to long is that, if we break trough the max fake level I highlighted in my chart.
Gerasimos
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Nice rationale. So apart from the Macro pattern don’t you have any other catalyst for EURUSD downtrend? For example why it will move down? Because of cycle? Because of the EU economy? Or something else?
Thanks for your time Petr!
Petr_Suchanek
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Well, I do not asses fundamental impacts on market behaviour. My thoughts are purely technical, based mainly on fibo levels, which give the levels, where market might turn.
Gerasimos
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Cool, I mostly agree with your analysis but I believe that it could be helpful to have knowledge of fundamentals, it might make you more confident (add to your positions) and less wrong. I wish you achieve your targets.
Thanks for your time.