I think yesterday we printed the DCL in EurUsd also. At the previous DCLs (red arrows) RSI always left oversold territory and TSI - sometimes MACD also- crossed over to the upside a little bit later. The same thing happened yesterday. I'm not waiting for this trendline to break down in the following 7-8 days I'm sure we will have a bounce from here. And after that mini bounce we will break 1.1113 down. The turning point could be the 10-20-50 EMA. I took out Draghi's speech spike because that was a false breakdown.
I think now the EurUsd is the leader and not DXY. The FED june rate hike is already on the table but the Brexit vote is becoming more and more important as the fear will set the the price in this pair.
I set this idea as a long i'm not going to trade it but I'm waiting for a 4-5 days bounce here. You can also hold your shorts we can add - I will reenter shorts - when this bounce is done. My advice is not to trade this long because this will be short and weak bounce and you risk to get caught in a big drawdown.
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I don't know how is yours, but my wedge broke out to the upside..
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It seems to me that Draghi's speech was the right pivot for our trendline. I set it know correctly. I'm looking for a bounce from 1.1072 on Monday or Tuesday.
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chartwatchers
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I don't know how is yours but my wedge broke out to the upside..
KashifN28959685
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Hi, What are your thoughts on eurusd after friday big drop, this 1.1100 level looks critical.
gcplau
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I agree half of the idea here. Firstly, dollar rose 3.2% and reached cycle swing down, 2). not only existing EURUSD is a trendline bottom, it's also a neckline, depends on how NY close today. This possible bounce may steer the 20/50MA kiss touch, and form a right shoulder, in this case the bounce could be a bit more significant. That means, I do think to take this bounce opportunity. Same for GBP, it's upward strength and if kept this week may lead to the whole trading range one row upward (high/low in 500pips upward; near term quite positive on the GBPNZD uptrend opportunity.
chartwatchers
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PS.: Nightstar thanx for the yesterday's chart. It opened my eyes that not DXY is leading.
But I have to disagree with the possibility of the trendline break in the following 2-3 days.
We should hold these lows now.
Nightstar
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My pleasure :) and you're probably right, the bounce off the trendline looks very good.. I've just witnessed a few false bottoms over the past year or so as cycle continue to get stretched in these crazy Markets, so I always keep one eye open just in case, haha! Fun times my friend.
captain_smollett
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My model says DXY returns down immediately or raise to 97, 96 is an important resistance though... By the way, not sure if WTI should finally react to the USD rally
marcus123
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nice analysis;
FX_Twist
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Can u pls explain what is that TSI (25,13,13) indicator?
andrej123456
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Thank you for the chart.
Victor.Y.F
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Thank you! Charrtwatchers! Same view with you also gold.