General Market Outlook - July 20th, 2014

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
201 2 3
Reminder: Next week will be the last analysis for this summer, then I'll be back on the last Sat/Sunday of August to post again.


Interesting Pairs:

AUD/USD             - Bearish

- Price did move down to test the 0.9325 level as expected but I didn't bother to take the trade (would've been +50 pips if I did)
- Moving forwards, two things can happen:
1. Continue ranging between 0.9325 and 0.9435
2. Descending triangle breakout and price moves towards 0.9200 (I prefer this one)


EUR/USD             - Bullish (Currently holding longs from 1.3500)

- Solid down move on EUR/USD             this week, moved down as expected (+125 pips)
- Given the pinbar/doji close of Friday, price may bounce from here targeting the 1.37 handle again. However, this is contingent on the 1.347X support level holding.


GBP/USD             - Bullish (Currently holding longs from 1.704X)

- Price finally hit my 1.718X level and my shorts filled, which I rode down to the short term downward trend line at 1.704X (+125 pips)
- Moving forwards, price may continue moving up to test the 1.718X level again. However, this is contingent on the downward trend line holding.
- If the trend line doesn't hold, then downside targets are 1.68 and 1.69.


USD/JPY             - Bullish (Currently holding longs from 101.1X)

- My longs got stopped out for break even when price went down on Thursday. However, I opened a few more longs at 101.1X on Friday since I'm still leaning towards bulls on this pair.
- Moving forwards, I would like to see price move up to the 102.00 (new aqua parallel line) and 102.2X levels


Confusing Pairs:

USD/CAD             - No Comment

XAG/USD             - No Comment


Note: Refer to last week's General Market Outlook if something doesn't make sense.

Risk Disclaimer: My analysis is provided solely as an educational tool. Should you decide to trade based on my analysis, do so at your own risk. I am not liable for any loss that you may incur. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Trade Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.
Update: Got stopped out of my EUR/USD for break even and went long again at 1.3480. Tight stops here though because this is where price bounced at beginning of February 2014. If this level breaks, price will probably slide down and I'll have to reverse my position.
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Rather than clutter this week's analysis with trades, I'm posting the conclusion of my trades here.

EUR/USD: 1.347X support did not hold, I lost 15 pips on my long entry at 1.3480.
GBP/USD: 1.7040 trend line support did not hold, I got stopped out for break even. However, I "lost" 50 pips profit in the process but net loss is 0.
USD/JPY: I exited my trade at Friday's close due to the pinbar on daily and because I'm leaving tonight, so I don't want to have any open positions. From 101.1X to 101.7X, I gained 60 pips here.

Net total from 3 positions = -15 + 0 + 60 = +45 pips for this week