Technical outlook: EURUSD has retraced 0.38% of its rally from 1.1719 to 1.2534. The 0.38 level has held the support successfully on Thursday and Friday during the stock market turmoil. So I think that this level will hold the price and we will see the price rally towards 1.2534 again. we have another support near 0.5 fib level at 1.2127 and then the 2017 high at 1.21 will provide more support in case we go lower.
Fundamental outlook: Euro area economy continue to show growth and resilience so ECB will ultimately taper QE and will raise rates while on the other hand FED has raised rates thrice in 2017 and they were expected to raise rates thrice in 2018 also but after the recent meltdown in the stock markets they may rethink their rate hike strategy. So the probability of three rate hike in 2018 has decreased and this will help Euro against the Dollar.
Trade idea: I will take a long position at the Friday close price 1.2250 and will target the 2018 high at 1.2538. Stop will be below 2017 high at 1.2095.
Trade active
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Trade is active entry point was 1.2250.
Trade active
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Moved stop to 1.2290 securing the 40 pips and target is still at 1.2530
Trade closed: target reached
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Target got hit at 1.2530 with a profit of 280 pips