A purely Technical look at Eur/Usd

FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Whatever happens with Greece now - it will probably way down on the Euro             area and the currency
The whole things has become tedious and seems without end:

In case of a Grexit the Euro             will probably enter a (slow) decline;
in case of a 'yes' vote tomorrow, the Euro             will show (maybe) a relief rally and when everyone realizes again
that the negotiations and BS will be dragging on forever, Eur/Usd             will start falling again

From a purely technical point of view I am hoping for a (small) relief rally to be able to sell:

From the last Gap to the previous highs gives me a Fibonacci expansion of 61.8% around 1.1228
and where this line cuts through the downward resistance trend-line seems a good spot to sell

I am expecting a 'yes' vote from the Greeks, because the majority of the people want to keep the Euro             ;
so, if Eur/Usd             reaches my 'sell' area -- let's say: just above 1.12
I will be selling Eur/Usd             with a SL of 1.1250 (this price action would break downward decline)
my target will be a break of support trend-line which lies around 1.11 at the moment

In case of gradual decline after a 'yes' vote rally dies down, and traders become sick of Greece again
I will probably TP just above trend-line support, let's say: 1.1125

In case of 'fast' price action, and a break of trend-line support, I will be looking to reload on a test of the broken trend-line, and will be adding to my short position there, I do not really expect any wild rides any more, but if it happens:
in this case I will need to re-evaluate my TP ( I may keep shorts to wait for a break of 1.05 again)

See also:!/greek-referendum-cheatsheet-from-credit-suisse-20150704
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