hussein.ahmed
Short

A very hard decision. UPDATE

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Foo! finally Greece made a deal on its short term bailout programme after a long time of confusion discounted in the charts of this pair. The good news lifted the pair up without printing higher highs, however investors are still looking at the major news on the ECB as to the Quantitative Easing program. Today Greece introduced its list for economic reforms needed as a condition to extend its bailout programme for four more months, otherwise the country would run out of cash by the very end of this month. Negative deposit rates are reflecting positively on the Euro             economy, as we economic readings were in green for many of the Euro             zone countries especially for PMI indicators, however the improvement is done at a very slow pace.

On the other side, the Fed is worried about rising rates too soon, as global recovery is stagnating, other economists see it as an opportunity for the Fed to raise rates soon as they see the American economy is strong enough to sustain rising interest rates. Rising rates too soon might cause the US economy to fall back to where it started from. Looking at oil             prices, they have been inching up as Libya is threatened to stop pumping oil             into the world economy after ISIS             took over valid oil             cities in the country. On the other hand, this week, we saw oil             prices drop as an unexpected rise in crude inventories showed.

We also saw Walmart rising wages for 500 jobs one of the biggest retailers in the U.S. after beating profit estimates. This is a very good sign that the American economy is strengthening up. This move might encourage other U.S. businesses to raise wages, which is a very important factor the Fed is looking at, at its decision to raising rates.

With the Fed is closer to rising rates, and the ECB is closer to introducing QE             , this pair is fundamentally bearish .

Technically, the pair has been performing lower highs in contrast to higher lows, indicating confusion in the market. This has created a support/resistance wedge triangle denoted in the two red dotted lines. If prices close below the lower support red line and the blue dotted line (for further confirmation), we might see the prices finding support at the 28th of January strong support line denoted in the green dotted line. In that case, I would wait for prices to push back up to the 1.3028 level (support of the blue circle). If prices failed to break above that line, then I would take a short position riding the wave down to 1.11.

UPDATE (26/02/2015): The pair broke the lower red line support and also the 1.1300 support level and closed below it just as the above chart shows, watch for a little green retracement to trigger your short position and follow the trend down. Good luck
hussein.ahmed
2 years ago
UPDATE (26/02/2015): The pair broke the lower red line support and also the 1.1300 support level and closed below it just as the above chart shows, watch for a little green retracement to trigger your short position and follow the trend down. Good luck
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