The ECB is expected to do 4 things: cut rates by 0.1% to -0.5% (1), with the mitigating measure of tiering (2). Furthermore, the market expects and extension of forward guidance (‘at present or lower…well past the horizon of net asset purchases’) (3); the market expects the reintroduction of QE for 12 months at a pace of 30-40 bln per month (4).
The market is expecting a bazooka…but the Shadow ECB council suggested that Draghi will not be able to deliver the full package. Since the market is expecting a bazooka, obviously the sensitive side is the hawkish surprize.
DO NOT TRADE AHEAD OF THE DECISION. Wait for the evidence and then act.
We will update this chart as appropriate, after the decision.