EUR/USD - Dollar easing off the pressure.

FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Hey folks,

For today I was looking at a short scenario for EURUSD . Considering the current economic turmoil from last week, the USD somehow managed to find some strength. News that FED will lower interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting gave some bullish hopes in regard to the USD.

Moving on to our analysis, as you can see on the chart, the grey trendline didn't hold the price that much and as for now we are getting further and further away from it which is a good sign if you are on the bearish side.

From Monday, the price started to get exhausted when it entered the 4H order block area. Looking at the indecision candles from that area, that was the trigger we were expecting to get a bearish impulse.

What next?
We expect the price to make a pullback before engaging in any short trades. This impulse was the first confirmation needed to raise our chances for the market to drop. Now we have to wait for a pullback on the lower timeframes to increase our chances to continue the bearish move.

I can see the price breaking the local low here as a first target and eventually reaching the 1.034 level in the mid-term (blue zone).

Trade with care.
Will keep an eye on this area on 15 min for a reaction:

So far so good, we broke the low as we anticipated, but we didn't get a pullback in order to enter any shorts.

Right now, the price is starting to make a correction so keep an eye on these 2 areas and the 2 outcomes which we expect, as we are expecting a reaction around them:

So, the first area is invalid right now and it looks like we are closing in on the second one. This also coincides with an important FIB level (as you can see on the chart) so, I advise you to keep an eye on the 15 min Order Block for a reaction.

Trade with care.

Update: The chart is getting a bit messier but it doesn't matter as we still expect a reaction at the level highlighted in the chart above. Cheers
Price just tagged the OB area.

I can expect two scenarios from here, both on the bearish side of things, but not without getting a confirmation. If the price breaks this level and starts climbing up without giving any sell setup, our trade setup is invalid. Trade with care

So far, so good, the price made a new local top and is still in the OB area. As far as we stay in here, any sell setup is valid in our opinion.

We also got some MACD & RSI divergence which increases our chances for a bearish move on the bigger TF.

You have all the details below, and depending on the sell setup that will develop, you can have a nice R:R trade. I advise you not to risk more than 0.5% of your account if you go with this setup. Trade with care.

Price gapped up at the market open today, and made a new local top reaching the %70.5 FIB level before dropping slightly. We go again, as the last setup didn't get triggered and the trade became invalid.

Below you can find the trade roadmap that I am looking at. If the price breaks today's top, the trade becomes invalid and we will be waiting again for another potential setup. Trade with care.

Trade active:
Sell setup:

Entry: 1.0663
Stop Loss: 1.0692
Take Profit: 1.0503

Risk: 0.5%
R:R - 1:6

Trade closed: stop reached:
SL got hit, with 0.5% loss. We go again when another setup unfolds. Cheers!

Best regards.

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