Akil_Stokes
Long

EURUSD: Who The Heck Knows What's Next

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
I’m not even going to lie to you guys. I have no idea what the next move is on the Euro             . As I told my training course clients yesterday, right now I’m in defense mode as I don’t want to give any of this years gains back trying to get cute in these crazy markets. With that being said I have gotten messages here on Tradingview to share my opinion and do some analysis so here it is.

After resistance is broken it turns to support, so I’m looking for price action to retrace to our previous level of structure and potential give us some type of reaction. Normally I would say to expect a trend continuation move here but I do think yesterday’s moves were overblown and a correction is in store, especially for those interested in buying USD’s and this discounted price.

Looking on the hourly chart a harmonic move (ABCD) would put us right at a previous level of structure both minor on the hourly and major on the daily. Also, keep in mind we have an important consumer confidence number coming out this morning as well. So will there be a reaction, I don’t know. Where will that reaction take us, I don’t know. Hey I’m just being honest with you. The only think I’ll be looking at is short term trading opportunities once my live room opens. By the way if you want to spend a free week in there with me, you can sign up here. http://tradeempowered.com/fx-live-room/

Maybe I’ll see you throughout the week, maybe I won’t. As mentioned before I’m not in a rush to gamble and try to catch the “hot” move, rather I’m concerned with conserving my capital and not letting a decent year of trading profits get eaten up by greed.

Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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FunguyTrader
2 years ago
Resistance just turned support - I'm long.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP FunguyTrader
2 years ago
Nice! Good luck mate
Reply
StarProsper PRO
2 years ago
Awesome post Akil, thanks for sharing :) I personally lost 3% this month due to what's been happening and I'm sitting on the sidelines with my plan ready to go again, when it deems right.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP StarProsper
2 years ago
No problem, crazy markets these days, it's been a very interesting year. A true test in my opinion
+1 Reply
Oztrade
2 years ago
Nice one Akil - Great Insight.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Oztrade
2 years ago
Thanks
Reply
dionvuletich
2 years ago
For the first time this year I have no orders in or open positions.... market cleaned the closet in the last week

Still up nicely this month but might give it a day or two to settle down then jump back in... Euro short term? no idea... bias is long as was long eurgbp till last night - but big moves recently
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP dionvuletich
2 years ago
Yeah it's just so hard to tell right now. What's a real move verses a correction from yesterday
+1 Reply
dionvuletich Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
Yeah agree, although i am closing some shorts on the indices and trying to get long the dax/ eurostoxx50... the run has been a reminder of the volatility during the GFC just after I started trading... (yup, unlucky me)

Going to give FX a few days to settle down, as a side note I think the indices are in for a decent rally over the next few days - and then I think it will be real trouble ahead
Reply
moneymaking
2 years ago
Nice work Akil, entered short for short term, now switched to buy. We are likely to see some consolidation on this pair, unless some news moves it strongly in either direction. Good Luck mate :)

Great point made on not letting hard earned profits get eaten up by greed :)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP moneymaking
2 years ago
Thanks, it'll be interesting to see how the USD data affects the markets this week. I think anything "below forecast" will add fuel to the fire, while good news may help realize that everything isn't as bad as they initially thought
+1 Reply
moneymaking Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
Totally agree :)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP
2 years ago
"that's the nature of the markets, most people lose & some people win" #TradeTweets Great quote from @Jason_Stapleton in today's Warroom
Reply
moneymaking Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
I feel so relieved that I was able to stay away from trading the daily bearish bat pattern. As you mentioned in your idea that, it not when we are going to get there, it also HOW we are going to get there. The HOW part is what I payed close attention to. With bulls reaching the bat pattern completion level that easily, I doubted the validity of the pattern, in terms of it being profitable. Which is what allowed me to stay on the sidelines and not trade it. I only had a very small position size open to the short side, but didn't lose much :)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP moneymaking
2 years ago
I think being able to sit on your hands and do nothing, when nothing meets your plan is a GREAT sign of professionalism and being able to keep those emotions at bay
+1 Reply
moneymaking Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
That's exactly what we need to do with EURUSD, it's currently in no man's land. Knowing when to sit back and do nothing is also quiet difficult for some traders, especially new traders. They just feel like that they have to trade and they end up making up a trade setup that is not even there. To be honest, I use to do that a lot myself, looking for opportunities every single time, when there was none. After joining tradingview's awesome community and going over Akil's and Jason more than 100+ YouTube videos, it has really turned my thought process around, in a good way :)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO moneymaking
2 years ago
Same...this is a very good lesson here.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
I think the fibonacci measurement will be more relevant if measured from August 7th low.
Great lesson on staying put Akil, it's hard but it's what will keep us afloat.
+1 Reply
1800 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
great analysis akil and eye opening too
Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
We did that in the Live Room today as we dug in a little deeper, think we had a 50% at that same level?? I don't remember but we had some confluence. Not enough to give me any confidence but still a cool exercise
Reply
Jon
2 years ago
Really professional analysis and good comments all round - really helpful. I have a financial background but as a new trader I'm suffering from most of the issues newbies suffer - but learning quickly. I'll sit for a bit on my slightly burned hands ;)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Jon
2 years ago
Thanks Jon, great to hear that you're so honest with yourself. It's got to be even tougher from someone with a financial background to trade because there must be a million different thoughts and past lessons running through your head. I was lucky as I knew little to nothing about the markets so i had a clean slate to start from. Hopefully I can be a help in your trading journey!
+1 Reply
EGEfx
2 years ago
Thank you Akil! Greetings from Turkey! According to my analysis ,I think the pair may touch around 1.1340 where it has recently struggled to break for both direction( from March)...May I have any idea from your superior consideration?
+2 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP EGEfx
2 years ago
That's certainly a possibility
+1 Reply
Killy_Mel
2 years ago
It is always great for a trader to know when NOT to trade!)
+3 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Killy_Mel
2 years ago
Thanks, and you're 100% correct, not trading is sometimes the best trade you can make
+4 Reply
I'm with Akil on this. I think the markets are meat grinders for hopefuls at the moment. There are a few who will make a few fast bucks and feel good. I don't think trading is simply about flirting with danger. It is about managing risk. There are times when one has to say something like, "I can't manage this risk in a way that makes for overall profits."

There are always some who will wish to go surfing in a turbulent tsunami - and that's fine for them.

When I see a tsunami - I shamelessly run for the hills. It's not about fear. It's about objectively assessing risk. Lose the ego thing but not your money - is what I say.

Maturity in trading is more about self-restraint - than about adrenaline rushes that come from playing chicken with the markets.
+4 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Captain_Walker
2 years ago
One thing we tell our traders is that the #1 rule of trading is "Don't go broke" many will disagree but the main goal isn't to make as much profits as you can, rather conserve capital. I'm with you in the hills, getting a better perspective and assessing the damage
+3 Reply
CharlotteZhang
2 years ago
Quite agree with you, it is a really really crazy market now. I am now inclined to stay on SHORT USD, maybe through some options, but the vol now is already getting high:(
+1 Reply
starlord369
2 years ago
thanks for the share
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP starlord369
2 years ago
No problem
Reply
MATASII.com PRO
2 years ago
Hi Alki, great analysis as usual.
For what it's worth, I see more drop possible from the USD. IF this is the case, it should give some indication as to what we can expect from the EURUSD and other related markets.
Once again: Severe USD Pullback Warning
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP MATASII.com
2 years ago
All opinions are worth it, hopefully today's charts will allow me to have a better idea of what's may occur next
+1 Reply
KVE PRO
2 years ago
So much questions at the moment, thought I'd look at it from a distance for clues, not much wiser...:
EUR/USD: The bigger picture! Analysis paralysis setting in...
+2 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP KVE
2 years ago
Paralysis by Analysis indeed.
+3 Reply
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