Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK

Draghi helping to catalyse EUR/USD bulls

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The previous push above the 1.0825, (38.2%) Fibonacci retracement of the May-December fall and the 1.0870~ high of December 2016 has not been sustained, with EUR/USD falling back into range.

Downside risks, however, are expected to remain limited, as momentum studies continue to strengthen and positive divergence unwinds. In the coming months, fresh gains are looked for, as investor sentiment gradually improves.

A close above the 1.0900~ high of March will further improve sentiment, and open up the 1.0970~, (50%) Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.1000. Beyond here is the 1.1125, (61.8%) Fibonacci retracement .

Support remains at 1.0500 and extends down to the 1.0340~ year low of December 2016. This area should underpin any immediate setbacks, as the Tension Indicator (not shown) continues to improve.

A break, however, would see increased selling pressure and confirm extension of the broad 2008 bear trend. Focus would then turn to the 1.0065, (76.4%) Fibonacci retracement of the 2000-2008 rally and psychological support at parity.