In my previous published chart the anticipated low did not form as the selling pressure gained momentum. However, my overall expectation for EURSD has not changed.
There is too much made of Eurozone weakness and USD is not exactly out of woods. Specially if the expectation of rising interest rate do not materialise soon.
Consequently, EURUSD could mount a strong rally to retest the declining major resistance line before another down swing to completion of the bullish triangle, or we have near completion of 78.6% Fib retracement of the June 2010 - May 2011 swing.
ADX on weekly suggesting potential over extension and signalling climax in the offing. These observations are even more clear on daily time frame.
There is no way on earth the Euro will hit .40 again anytime soon. Maybe in 3 years.
willworknow
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If you look at the monthly chart, I see an a (down to 10-26-2008 @ 1.2300)-b (triangle)-c....of which your 5 waves down would be wave 1 of a higher degree...which indicates WAY lower levels (after a wave 2 correction...that should be coming soon).
i62.tinypic.com/2eokzty.png
I note that when EURUSD formed high in 2008 a famous model went public by asking to be paid in EURO rather than USD. Then with 2012 low, many institutions were busy exploring possibilities of EURO disappearing and mitigating or managing contractual obligations.
Now the likes of Honeywell hedging their EURO revenue and major banks charging the negative interest rate could this all lead to potential bottom being formed in EURUSD?
Here is the updated chart with 5 wave decline and looking for a significant low in the region of 1.25 - 1.24
pmks1
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interesting DanV. And yes, who dont remember that beautiful Model who asked for the money in Euro ...
DanV
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Indeed. Glad to concur. Thanks.
Haynes6EU
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I see you put a assumption that previous support 1.24 will hold. So Does previous support usually hold and EURUSD often go up?
DanV
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Well, as you said, a chartist or trader has to work with some probabilities. So I am presuming theta the support will hold. But if it does not then quite rightly it will drop to levels you are highlighting. Equally both of will be completely wrong. So right now, we have not options but to wait and see how price action develops. Thanks for your comments
Haynes6EU
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Agree with you! All we can't predict the future, so one thing we can do is to watch closely on price action develops. I'm a fan of you and learn some thing from your chart :D
Haynes6EU
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Do you have any reason for 1.21 should be hold? why not break 1.21 and hit 1.12 in the next 2~3 years? It's Just only my view on the weekly chart! tradingview.com/v/nzM4PX8U/
Kumowizard
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Simple and cool analyses! Thx a lot! In my system a sustained break above 1,2720 will confirm this reversal. By the way if we look at it in reflexive way, we should get to the same conclusion that the chart probably suggests correctly. I mean all fundamental factors are known about ECB and FED policy changes. What's more, ECB kind of still hesitant to clarify the amounts of possible QE, and I think mentionning the USD strength in FED statement is a game changer to rate hike expectations. Meanwhile HFs and mkt players have increased their long USD holdings even last week! The crowd is getting too big, while the upside of the long USD trade from here is limited. Mkts tend to move to the direction where they can cause a bigger pain. And we are getting close to year end too, and frankly speaking this year the short 10y US Treasury trade burnt a lot of people, long equities seem to be disaster too, will the next unwind be the long USD?