the structure which we can see in the chart is everything but beautiful. Anyone is willing to make a clear decision. Such situations I do not like, but, it doesn’t help, we have to read the chart hoping it helps.
As I mentioned in my last analysis, I see the sore point at 1.1432. This assessment I want to renew and complete it about the fact that it is the zone between 1.1432/1.1459 which we have to keep an eye on. If EUR/USD will break through there sustainingly, we have seen the low already at 1.1216, if not, we remain baerisch with the direction to parity.
There are two scenarios on the way down, we should keep in mind…
Scenario 1 – green line, chance 35%
My so far preferred scenario looks shot and is bleeding. Because of the structure we can admire in the chart, I see only a 35% probability that we have seen the subsequence (wave A, purple) already to start now up to complete wave B (purple).
Much more likely is…
Scenario 2 – red line, chance 65%
…that we haven’t seen the low of wave A already and the EUR/USD is now on its way down to complete it at the region between 1.08/1.07. And maybe it will close the gap finally, which is laughing out of the chart since Apr . 2017.
In short: Keep an eye on 1.1432/1.1459! I will give an update as soon as a scenario prevails.
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