EURUSD Friday Update
Although now flat on all pairs escept USDJPY, still believe EUR is going to weaken, just not convinced
there's enough impetus right now to force it back lower into new lows with any real power behind it.
It's either going to fail here, as it's back testing the neckline of the head and shoulders looming
above it - high in London at 1.1671, so if you're still short from 1.1648-1.1665 with stop
15 points higher at 1.1680 it hasn't been hit yet and it probably will come off from here
so it's Ok to short with same stops as above, at 1.1680 but only for 40 pips or so back to
1.1613 - then look to close out as it will likely rally again from around here (Unless you catch this short from the
neckline at 1.1665 risk reward ratios are not worth chasing for these few pips - 2 to 1 shots are hardly
worth the risk, imo, but you may be OK with that)
...we then need to see it trade 15 pips lower, to 1.1598 to trigger a new short, looking to get in on the next minor
pull-back for a move down to 1.1482 initially.
The other point where we can expect a reversal for EUR, if not from here, will be off the upper
parallel and will require the following price action to become reality: Eur will have to break above
the neckline at 1.1665, then bust the stop 15 pips higher. Time, then to switch into longs for
a move up to the parallel where will look to go short once more.
So far price action on this pair all week has been a continuation pattern under the
neck-line, suggesting further weakness for EUR soon - but annoyingly the pattern can play
out a while longer and this period of range trading within the range set out for the week so
far could well persist for a day or two more - OK for day traders but no help for swingers...
for them we need to see a break out of this week's range, as outlined above.
Too long writing this...in the time it's taken EUR has already fallen 16 pips...too much waffle! But am out this afternoon Uk time so have tried to cover every eventuality I can see - too much information though. Will try to paraphrase in future
Although now flat on all pairs escept USDJPY, still believe EUR is going to weaken, just not convinced
there's enough impetus right now to force it back lower into new lows with any real power behind it.
It's either going to fail here, as it's back testing the neckline of the head and shoulders looming
above it - high in London at 1.1671, so if you're still short from 1.1648-1.1665 with stop
15 points higher at 1.1680 it hasn't been hit yet and it probably will come off from here
so it's Ok to short with same stops as above, at 1.1680 but only for 40 pips or so back to
1.1613 - then look to close out as it will likely rally again from around here (Unless you catch this short from the
neckline at 1.1665 risk reward ratios are not worth chasing for these few pips - 2 to 1 shots are hardly
worth the risk, imo, but you may be OK with that)
...we then need to see it trade 15 pips lower, to 1.1598 to trigger a new short, looking to get in on the next minor
pull-back for a move down to 1.1482 initially.
The other point where we can expect a reversal for EUR, if not from here, will be off the upper
parallel and will require the following price action to become reality: Eur will have to break above
the neckline at 1.1665, then bust the stop 15 pips higher. Time, then to switch into longs for
a move up to the parallel where will look to go short once more.
So far price action on this pair all week has been a continuation pattern under the
neck-line, suggesting further weakness for EUR soon - but annoyingly the pattern can play
out a while longer and this period of range trading within the range set out for the week so
far could well persist for a day or two more - OK for day traders but no help for swingers...
for them we need to see a break out of this week's range, as outlined above.
Too long writing this...in the time it's taken EUR has already fallen 16 pips...too much waffle! But am out this afternoon Uk time so have tried to cover every eventuality I can see - too much information though. Will try to paraphrase in future