finitemonk

TWO CHARTS & THEORY - CHART II

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
114 0 0

Please see CHART I for intro. An important point - at this viewpoint or range the lines of the Raise (upward force) and Inhibition (downward force) forks appear to be only slightly angled off horizontal. If you pull away they rapidly become much steeper. The Prime Carrier lines or Equilibrium Wave lines (I'm not sure about these terms but they'll do for now) will by consequence that they are expressions of the overall long term average appear roughly horizontal. Almost.
All said here we are with the 240 EURUSD             . You can see the resistance, support etc provided by all of the lines. Taking some samples:

1) The 4th/5th of June the pair gradually unglues itself from the upper 0.618 line of the Inhibition fork . Even though it is above the line it is stuck to it, it is inhibiting the rise, eventually it frees itself and pops up. You can see the slurp of the glue in the candle wicks.

2) Point B. No way was it going over the outer line of the Inhibition. It tried. It also had the resistance of a Prime line. No escape from the Inhibition. Not yet. It was a very good short trade. It then plunged step by step down. You can see how each line fulfils its function, if only briefly. The red lines of the Raise generally breaks the fall, bounces it, attempts to pull it up.* But the Inhibition has it's way right down to its upper 0.382 where it reverses.
* NB : 3) There is a perfect exception to this rule/effect, where in the upward thrust by a new more forceful line, the lower 0.25 line of the Raise fork acts as resistance.

A useful minor fork , by joining A (out of sight) with B & C. The velocity of the spring back up to the midline of the new fork was impressive.

4) That long extending wick. It is not so much a plonk down as a stretch. I would suggest it is not only reaching for the red ML. I think the pair knows it is very close to breaking out the top of the Inhibition fork . It is getting excited. The Euro             has weakened, that support drop to point C was effectively a Euro             crisis driven kick in the leg. However that point of breakage I think is inevitable looking at the longer term. The two forks must diverge and the pair must decide on its loyalty. The Median Line of the Raise fork is leaving the outer edge of the Inhibition. It is proving very attractive. The spring up from point C was also a marked refusal to engage in breaking the neck of the huge long term head & shoulders . The pennant it is currently engaged in could last in a form nearly to Mid August.

5) Where the pair would ideally like to be going, near term, is to the upper 0.382 of the minor fork . It is the reflection of where it is finding support. It is currently quite hesitant.

6) I would suggest that there is what I call a 'ripple' or 'shadow line'. It is not an 'official' retracement line but all these significant lines can occasionally have ghost like copies of themselves nearby. Why here? Check out the behaviour of price from the 10th of June to the 24th. It is suggestive.

My slight caution any immediate rise is how it flipped down off the minor fork median line . So we have to see how that support from the 0.382 holds into early next week or not. There is a more than strongish hint of rising up off it. If it jumps it goes AT LEAST to 1.33. The red Median Line . It can feel its magnetic power.
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