Before we possibly break the longterm "up" trendline we could be up for a re-test of the broken flag trendline. This bat might be the catalyst for such a move. It is close to completion! My buy limit orders are set at 1.0610...
Stops below the bat X point, which is the March low level. The usual targets + 1 extended target depending on where PA could be testing that broken flag boundary. 50% at TP1 + SL to BE, 30-40% at TP2 + SL just below TP1, 10-20% at TP3.
The picture is very bearish since we broke through the flag pattern, possibly ending the corrective structure we have been in since early March of this year. Therefor: proceed with caution and choose your position size wisely!
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It seems we got some reaction at that level. Entry missed by 10 pips but as long as the first target isn't hit I'll leave my buy orders unchanged.
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Target 1 reached! SL to BE, on to TP2!!
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I'll close if we break support at 1.0800. Currently back short based on this (hedge trade until either one of two scenario's play out): I'll add shorts if the direction turns more bearish.
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Target 1 reached, adjusted target 2 and 3, SL now at 1.0690 in profit!
Look here for an updated view >>
Trade closed: target reached
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All 3 targets met, closed everything today!
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IvanLabrie
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It's a shame the SL is so wide. But great call.
KVE
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Thanks for the comment!
Yes you're absolutely right, I'm currently working on squeezing my SL based on lower timeframe structure but it's almost impossible to predict this so far ahead on these higher timeframe setups, I guess it'd probably be better to leave those trades off entirely (on this timeframe) and just use it as an indication of what to watch and where to look for entries and targets etc.
My last lower timeframe analysis was actually quite succesfull at that, allthough I didn't get a chance to enter based on it because of the momentum of the up move (I wanted to enter after confirmation..., not really an option in this case;.. ;-) )
However that analysis does already make it possible to immediately trail my SL to BE on the larger timeframe trade which is now active (regretfully only a small position...)!
On Friday I caught a very nice GBP/NZD move with top-down analysis like that: entered short sell limit order at 2.2728 (re-test of 50% fib level), with tight SL at 2.2760, trade automatically closed at 2.2500 (7:1), I left the order with generous TP thinking I would get a chance to follow the trade if it got triggered and adjust TP but the move was so violent, it was all over in an hour and 3 minutes..., I went to the grocery store and when I came back my equity was up almost 3%, I was like wtf, what just happened... :-)
Regretfully I never got a chance to post the idea.
The EUR/USD smaller timeframe setup:
IvanLabrie
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Yes, I prefer to take it once it's near the PRZ, then look for entry in daily or 4h.