This is continuation of my previous idea which was with same strategy but neutral position. Now will take long position, today increasing it and 1.15 will be a turning point. If we'll brake it then even 1.04 might be a target in a long term.
I give us 70% for that current support at 1.15 will last. 30% that we are going way down. We all will have to pivot really quick like long term trend will do.
EURUSD is still highly corelated with XAUUSD in these local moves. Falling of EURUSD will slowdown effective fall of gold price. But breaking 1.15 might also led us to change of direction at gold which would set us with a new local low suggesting that 2,5 year long uptrend is still valid. Geopolitics are suggesting also that gold should be on a rise in a long term, but at least for week or two it should be falling still. More details in my latest idea about XAUUSD.
@arif_awan, Might be some false move here but for now I guess that with exactly breaking 1.15 we will fall waaaay down. But still 70% that we gonna bounce from 1.15 :)
@arif_awan, But Im' still at first all for that 1.15 also as a flat bottom formation which we are seeing now. If that won't work than yours scenario, maybe will wait with pivoting to shorts because of that.
@arif_awan, I see that you are really a respected and known trader here. I'm quite new to TradingView.com and currencies (stocks for over 10 years, crypto for around 1,5) so I really respect your thoughts :)
BTW what you are thinking about geopolitics and fundamentals? Or maybe you are focused just at technical analysis? Could you take a look at my gold chart and maybe leave your thoughts?