EURUSD is bearish to 1.0750 over the next 3 months

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
My reading of the Daily chart tells me that since the low of 1.0460 in March 2015, EURUSD has been tracing out a large contracting triangle pattern with 5 corrective waves (or legs) waves(A)(B)(C)(D)(E).

It has done wave(A) up to 1.1720, wave(B) down to 1.0515. I believe wave(C) up has finished at 1.1465 recently. If correct, then it is now on wave(D), which could trace out a down leg to around 1.0750 level over 3-4 months. Note that each of the prior legs lasted 4-5 months. From the chart, we see that it is currently forming a bear flag pattern. Resistance is at 1.1350, which could negate this bearish view if it trades above.

A trade plan could be to short at 1.1280-00 level with stop loss at 1.1350. The downside target will be 1.1100 in the short term, and 1.0750 in the medium term. Do also note that wave(D) is likely to be choppy with many whipsaws, lasting 3-4 months. It should not be a straight line fall to 1.0750 target. If it rallies above 1.1350 instead, then very likely wave(C) had not ended at 1.1465. Instead, it may extend to above 1.1600.

The key event risk will be the ECB meeting on 21 April, this Thursday.


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