mmhhhh.... one word of advice, when the top chart was published there were no signals to go long. for instance, if we considered the TIs first, what do we have? MACD and KST at their 0-line, and RSI slightly above the 50-line, which means neither short nor long. furthermore, PA was exactly in the middle of the BB at the BB midline, also a zone where no trade should be initiated, since it is the squeeze zone (more visible if you choose a STD < 3 and p < = 20) and thus we wait for a BO. problem is, TLs and triangle formation do not guarantee BO up or down. we just simply need more info. but the inability of price to break above the descending TL, and hence the continuous sequence of lower highs day after day was 1 bearish clue. consider this daily chart with time series from IDC (Interactive Data Corporation) instead of FXCM:
AlAlawiAlawi
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Same Trigger Zone 1.11 to start looking for a Buy or maybe worst.
faris.makki
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Excellent, thank you for your valuable input.
isomorph
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i also used to base my trades on fib confluences and so on. but nowadays, i feel that projecting into the future what might happen just because price will reach a particular confluence is just guessing at best, and at worst, gambling. for ex, at 0930 (approx.) we do have MPS3 (monthly pivot sppt 3; traditional computation), and if you draw a horizontal line to the left, you'll see that it touches previous low of june 24, in effect marking a significant floor or sppt level. so all we need is to see what kind of PA action we get at that level. on the daily chart i just posted below, we see the TL was broken and there isn't any significant technical sppt levels until the MPS3. so whether fib levels happen to coincide with the sppt/rsst levels defined by past PA, that's just that: a coincidence.
also, and although i only look at my custom TIs only after considering PA and TLs and position of price relative to its volatility bands, my TIs do show that momentum just entered OS zone and in no way show any signs that downward momentum has exhausted itself. sure, on an intraday basis (H1 or H4) we might get a few candles going back up all the way to the TL, but because the distance to this TL is not that great in terms of pips, it won't change the current picture on daily, and i would expect a continuation downwards until MPS3 is hit, possibly even a spike/collapse all the way to 0750 where another longer term TL is (see weekly chart here).
looking at H4, PA looks like your typical falling knife atm, ie very very bearish, the bottom has literally fallen out. it would be interesting to see whether we get a monster spike into the sppt levels we are discussing.
i must admit, weekly picture is scary. look at this momentum: it is just starting, which makes me wonder whether we are at the beginning of a multi-week fall to 0750-0700.