EURUSD SHORT if we fail to break and hold 1.1265

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Risks and slower growth than expected in EU implies we might revisit 1.1100 before we get any momentum

-- US-CHINA Trade War
-- US-EU Tariffs
-- US-MEXICO Tariffs
-- New NAFTA Deal might not be ratified
-- US Low Inflation and speculations of possible US FED rate cuts in 2019

As far as fundamentals are concerned , US Dollar was expected to fall due to slowing economy in 2019 but EURUSD was supposed to rise. The problem was that EU growth was expected to be very strong but now EU economies are heading into recessions instead. So expect EURUSD to fall to below 1.1100
Comment: As long as we fail at 1.1265 and we don't close above that level on a 4-hour or daily basis then we enter EURUSD Short . Look for a good entry point anywhere from 1.1240 to 1.1264
Comment: Disappointing US ISM data earlier today sent the US Dollar lower across all its major counterparts as markets priced in a greater probability of a cut from the Fed

But !!!!! Wait a minute, that's not a fact its a just a rumor . The Economic data from EU is grim but why is the EURUSD firing up on all cylinders ???? is one minor miss for US ISM enough to the change a fundamental major trend sentiment? i doubt that.

EU data shows that Eu growth is getting even worse. ECB is dovish . So what is driving the EURUSD ? i think its just a Bull Trap from EURO Bulls .

It we have a daily close above 1.1265 and hold it above that then we can cancel our short on EURUSD .
Comment: USDX (Dollar index) is dropping like a stone as per this minute. Its in a complete free fall from New York to Europe to Asia . Everyone is dumping .

-- Speculation or positioning (Institutions added on NET LONGS and add EUR SHORTS )
-- USDX went from 98.23 to now just going under 97.00 in a single day while EU is data is getting worse and worse but EURUSD jumps from 1.1140 to 1.1279 within less than 24 hours ?

-- Something is not right with that picture as the fundamentals, technicals and even other models say something is not right .

-- Anyone ? Anyone with a suggestion ?
Comment: we finally EURUSD broke 1.1265 but can we hold it for over 24 hours or not? if we fail to hold it then we enter EURUSD SHORT
Comment: As per this update: 23:00 Hours (11:00 pm EST ) , We have managed to hold 1.1265 for a few hours now but we need a clear break to confirm it otherwise we short ( Entry 1.1279 -- 1.1245, PF Target == 1.1120, SL = 1.1375 ). The EURUSD has been stuck within a 12 pips range for the last few hours.

-- Daily SMA20 == 1.1188
-- Daily SMA50 == 1.1211( this is an Alert for you to be aware of rally risk)
-- Daily SMA100 == 1.1279 ( This is the most important for short-term rally)
-- Daily SMA200 == 1.1375 ( The ultimate confirmation for long-term bull rally )
-- Daily short-term descending trend line == 1.1279
-- Daily long-term descending trend line == 1.1294


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