I have chosen this unusual format as a forum open to experienced and advanced traders. The goal is to promote intellectual exchange on real-life financial opportunities going on in the various financial markets.
As a sole moderator, I will continually oversee this project and will freely contribute my opinion for educational purpose only. I will not necessarily or always possibly respond to charting requests, but I will do so whenever an educational value is found.
As much as possible, I will add links to other charts posted in one of the several rooms I manage, which are:
MENU SERVED EVERY DAY:
1 - AMUSE-GUEULE: Forex Intel
This is the appetizer's food for the experienced trader who already has planned a trade, trades the plan, and might be interested in knowing what is the major institutional bias - Here, actual major banks' FX positioning are posted as they come (only medium and long-term positions)
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2 - MEATS & CARBS: The PAF Model
This represents the heaviest meats and creamy carb servings that are "still cooking" or about to be put on the kitchen table after receiving the last seasoning screen from the proprietary Predictive Analysis and Forecasting model - Expect a taste for everyone, served in a family-style potlatch. So here, the trader brings his/her own forks, Pi and other trading accoutrements. No links and no sausage fest please. Distractors will be gutted and served to the kitchen staff
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3 - DIGESTIF: e-MINI S&P 500
A true Chicago treat: Finger-size delicatessen imported from the north-central parts of the Unites States - Occasional visual gourmandise would be served after-hours most of the time.
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CHEF: David Alcindor, a.k.a.: 4xForecaster
TOOLS: A panoply of kitchenware and stuffing material exclusively from TradingView's armory.
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Merci bien de votre comprehension and future participation.
... Et, comme entendu: Bienvenu chez "Le 4xForecasteur"!
14th septembre, 2014
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)
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$EURUSD slo-mo to forecast targets; Downside becomes limited:
via @tradingview | $EUR $USD #forex
$NZDUSD moving as per forecast since dead-on hit; No change in prior analysis:
via @tradingview | $NZD $USD #forex
* * * Re-re-post ... Keep on posting the wring date - Today is ALREADY Friday! * * *
$GER30 completed an #elliottwave Regular Flat; Hit First Trigger level ... BULLISH?
via @tradingview | #GER30 $EUR
"I THOUGHT MAY BE DAX IS WORKING ON DAILY HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN"
Yes, VERY possible, but the market ha NOT posted any early reversal confirmation on my end, so from the tool I use, I remains guarded as to this posibility, considering the lack of weakness and paucity of indicator data in support of this bearish consideration - David
$DAX / $GER30: At top of flag (RED) and #elliottwave Wave-4 move; Favors rallying:
via @tradingview | $EUR #Forex
$XAUUSD reversing @ 1226.67 per forecast target; Now sees 1284.99 next:
via @tradingview | $XAU $GOLD $DUST $SLV
#ES Reversed At Wolfe; Holding At 1-4 Line; Forecast per #elliottwave Flat in force:
via @tradingview #SP500 $SPX
In contrast, get ready for a sturdier bearish entrenchment at the level corresponding to the red upward arrow. A respectable session high was attained in volume, and that volume was focused on acting as a stop-volume against a wide-spread bearish spike.
Time-consumptive consolidation would be expected from here on, as price coils up into potential bearish explosives, so to speak.
* * * A WW Within A WW * * *
$GBPJPY - M15: WW
$GBPJPY - H4: Tiny WW forming at the end of an impulse that started off of a larger WW's Point-4 - H4 chart:
$GBPJPY- DAILY: Here is the larger view of a larger WW.
Therefore, expect that the small WW completes into a lower leg, so as to help define Wave-B of a A-B-C pattern moving completion towards Wave 5 (shaded).
In other words, expect a temporary retracement to allow for the completion of the smaller WW, which is the continuation of the corrective's B Wave. After that, it's a move towards Point-5, I should expect - David
Very simple: In such geometries, the following proportions are regarded as key:
1-2 > 2-3 > 3-4 > 4-5 (i.e.: in terms of price differential.
Therefore, I would define a Stop-Loss above Point-5 that corresponds to a level up to, but not including the height of 3-4.
Point-3 = 175.252
Point-4 = 171.090
Point-3 - Point-4
= 175.352 - 171.090
THEN Stop-Loss from Point-5 should stand at no closer than 4.262.
* * * PEARL: If you do NOT want to have to calculate, simply draw a rectangle from Points 3 and 4, and place it atop the upper border of the triangle, and this should represent the point beyond which price should NOT attain in order to preserve this geometric rule, as follows:
GEOMETRIC HEIGHT ESTIMATION:
GEOMETRIC STOP-LOSS ESTIMATION:
Since the length of Wave-5 (Points 4-5) cannot exceed that of Wave-4 (Points 3-4), then a placement of Wave 4's height estimated at the level WHENEVER price touch the 1-3 Line would submit to the geometric requirement of the Elliott Wave's Principle ("EWP") as the most conservative way of defining this ST placement.
Is this answering your question?
Plus, on a structural level, it broke through the prior higher-high, making this a bullish price for the time being.
In fact, the author of RSI himself said it: BEARISH Divergences in RSI are associated with BULLISH trend continuation. Of course, there is always that perfect example when this is not true, but is failing in that picture is the observation to the left of price action (not in this chart, but other examples), where the price action will reveal that as price was climbing, the RSI was studding the way up with BEARISH divergences.
So, bearish divergences are a sign of pause, not reversal. Instead, NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES are rarer events than their Bearish cousins, and are most often a signal of actual reversal. In other words, Bearish divergence is associated with progressive, accumulated exhaustion.
Finally: Connie Brown's indicator, which is what I believe is posted in your chart, was built by her in order to signal false signals in RSI. In other words, it exists so as to appear in conjunction with RSI. She uses that CB indicator as a filter of RSI's possible false signals.
In the example she gives, as she filters through for a potential reversal to the DOWN-side, you are to look for a Negative Divergence in RSI where there is a Bearish Divergence in her CB Indicator.
Inversely, as she filters through for a potential reversal to the UP-side, you are to look for a Positive Divergence in RSI where there is a Bullish Divergence in her CB Indicator.
But if you look at it in Welles Wilder's point of view, then you do NOT need a CB indicator, since what she filters out happens to be what you are looking for in RSI in the first place (i.e.: Negative RSI Divergence for a DOWN-side move, and vice-versa).
This is one aspect of her trading with which I disagree. However, I have based most of my research on RSI since I started back in 1997, in the way that was recommend to use by its author. Instead, ALL programs that I have come across continue to talk about "oversold" and bearish/bullish divergences with RSI, which is complete non-sense - David
I contacted Mr. Welles Wilder through his DeltaSociety.com group, of which I was a member, but he has never been approachable. A person talking on his behalf mentioned that Mr. Wilder is not interested in any discussion related to the stock market. Sounds like he is done with all of it - david
Line parallel to 2-4 from point 3 to right above point 5 give short entry oppertunity.
Short entry may be placed at 174.683