EUR/USD prices are, once again, little changed this morning. As you can see, the buyers and sellers remain battling for position around the 1.12 handle. Directly overhead we have June’s opening level at 1.1238, followed closely by the mid-level resistance at 1.1250. Below 1.12, there’s little support until price connects with the mid-level barrier at 1.1150.
A quick look at the weekly chart shows that the single currency remains trading around the underside of a major supply at 1.1533-1.1278. Managing to cap upside since May 2015, this is not an area one should overlook. Looking down to the daily timeframe, however, the candles are now seen sandwiched between supply coming in at 1.1327-1.1253 and support pegged at 1.1142.
Our suggestions: Based on the above notes our desk has shown interest around the 1.1150 neighborhood, due to the base converging with the following structures (green area):
• A H4 trendline support taken from the high 1.1268. • A H4 trendline support etched from the low 1.1075. • A H4 61.8% Fib support at 1.1155 drawn from the low 1.1074. • A H4 78.6% retracement level pegged at 1.1147 penciled in from the low 1.1109. • A daily support level seen at 1.1142.
Seeing as how this zone is rather small, we will not be placing pending buy orders here. Instead, we’ve chosen to wait for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form, preferably a full-bodied candle. This will help prove buyer interest exists here which IS needed due to where price is trading from on the weekly chart right now.
Data points to consider: US Inflation and retail sales data at 1.30pm, FOMC statement, projections and Fed funds rate decision at 7pm, followed closely by the FOMC Press conference at 7.30pm GMT+1.