$EUR - "Wolfe Case" Scenario Sees 1.26696 | #EURO $USD #forex
Friends,
A recent Qual-Target defined a reversible level at 1.28377 (05 SEP 2014). However, closer scrutiny of the chart at the DAILY level reveals the presence of Bearish Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"). If you recall from yesterday the dire impact that this WW can have on price action (see this free fall here as a mere visual example:
).
In this particular case, I see no hurdles preventing this worst-case scenario from happening, except for the predictive/forecasting done this past week (05 SEP 2014), when the model defined a significant floor at TG-Lo = 1.28377.
WOLFE WAVES COULD PUSH PRICE FURTHER DOWN:
While this TG-Lo remains valid, WW patterns have a way to enforce their ways, as they seek completion at the level where price makes contact with the pattern's 1-4 Line. Considering the current momentum, there may remain even less doubt as to this feasibility even if and once price comes to validate the first bearish target at TG-Lo - 1.28377.
OCCULT GEOMETRIES ALIGN WITH WORSE CASE SCENARIO
First, let me say that the target defining the worst case scenario was defined by the predictive/forecasting model I use. However, I only considered it plausible due to price's proximity to the WW's 1-4 Line. Therefore a fair amount of selection bias has come into play here.
For this reason, I decided to appeal to hidden measurements from occult geometries, defined as follows:
1 - Shape #1 = Height of FIRST swing low
2 - Shape #2 = Height of SECOND swing low
3 - Shape #3 = Differential between Shape -1 and shape-2 at FIRST correction
4 - Shape #4 = Differential between Shape -1 and shape-2 at SECOND correction
- Note that the correction per Elliott Wave Principles ("EWP") would have defined a LOWER border of shape-2. However, this is a geometric definition of price action, where the angle and moment were used to defined the start/end levels of shape-2.
5 - Shape #5 = This is the shape named "3+4", as it is simply the added heights of shapes #3 and shape #4 stacked together.
OBSERVATION:
While most novice traders might not find this a rewarding exercise, I have come to enjoy discreet and occult geometric events such as these ones. In this case, geometry is CONFIRMING the WORST CASE SCENARIO's target at TG-x = 1.26696 by simply adding shape "3+4" onto itself, thus equaling EXACTLY the height of shape #1.
In other words, each retracements at shape #3 and shape #4 representing half the height of shape #1, would be doubled to point exactly at the worst case scenario target.
Whether purely random or not, I have done this exercise in no such randomness, but instead based on the same manner in which several other targets have concurred with the model using the same arithmetic process of shape additions and subtraction, based on their relative positions to one another.
OVERALL:
Aside from this occult geometric "amuse gueule", both the predictive/forecasting model and the WW demand a lower price target than originally defined. As this overall price action completes, a retracement of 50% would then be expected to occur, repulsing these bears back up to the 1.33307 level.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorad0 - USA
----------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
----------------
A recent Qual-Target defined a reversible level at 1.28377 (05 SEP 2014). However, closer scrutiny of the chart at the DAILY level reveals the presence of Bearish Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"). If you recall from yesterday the dire impact that this WW can have on price action (see this free fall here as a mere visual example:
In this particular case, I see no hurdles preventing this worst-case scenario from happening, except for the predictive/forecasting done this past week (05 SEP 2014), when the model defined a significant floor at TG-Lo = 1.28377.
WOLFE WAVES COULD PUSH PRICE FURTHER DOWN:
While this TG-Lo remains valid, WW patterns have a way to enforce their ways, as they seek completion at the level where price makes contact with the pattern's 1-4 Line. Considering the current momentum, there may remain even less doubt as to this feasibility even if and once price comes to validate the first bearish target at TG-Lo - 1.28377.
OCCULT GEOMETRIES ALIGN WITH WORSE CASE SCENARIO
First, let me say that the target defining the worst case scenario was defined by the predictive/forecasting model I use. However, I only considered it plausible due to price's proximity to the WW's 1-4 Line. Therefore a fair amount of selection bias has come into play here.
For this reason, I decided to appeal to hidden measurements from occult geometries, defined as follows:
1 - Shape #1 = Height of FIRST swing low
2 - Shape #2 = Height of SECOND swing low
3 - Shape #3 = Differential between Shape -1 and shape-2 at FIRST correction
4 - Shape #4 = Differential between Shape -1 and shape-2 at SECOND correction
- Note that the correction per Elliott Wave Principles ("EWP") would have defined a LOWER border of shape-2. However, this is a geometric definition of price action, where the angle and moment were used to defined the start/end levels of shape-2.
5 - Shape #5 = This is the shape named "3+4", as it is simply the added heights of shapes #3 and shape #4 stacked together.
OBSERVATION:
While most novice traders might not find this a rewarding exercise, I have come to enjoy discreet and occult geometric events such as these ones. In this case, geometry is CONFIRMING the WORST CASE SCENARIO's target at TG-x = 1.26696 by simply adding shape "3+4" onto itself, thus equaling EXACTLY the height of shape #1.
In other words, each retracements at shape #3 and shape #4 representing half the height of shape #1, would be doubled to point exactly at the worst case scenario target.
Whether purely random or not, I have done this exercise in no such randomness, but instead based on the same manner in which several other targets have concurred with the model using the same arithmetic process of shape additions and subtraction, based on their relative positions to one another.
OVERALL:
Aside from this occult geometric "amuse gueule", both the predictive/forecasting model and the WW demand a lower price target than originally defined. As this overall price action completes, a retracement of 50% would then be expected to occur, repulsing these bears back up to the 1.33307 level.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorad0 - USA
----------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
----------------
