bonic
Short

EURUSD Long-term analysis. Be prepared...

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Greetings fellow traders,

As time goes by, the markets evolve...
If your way of TA is strong, then the path will lead its way...

More visible, more probable:
  • Dashed lines; Possible forming patterns
  • Solid lines; Confirmed patterns / Support or Resistance
  • Dotted lines; Possible price-action trajectories / wave trend
  • Lighten colors = Support | Darken colors = Resistance

Today's Note:
Since I live in the EU zone, from time to time I shall publish my perspective on this market. This is going to be a long one...

I really hope I'm wrong with this. But, It's looking pretty bad. This might be another "The Great Short" moment. Meanwhile I've been analyzing the EURUSD for quite some time. Fundamentally, I don't see any reason for the Euro increasing its value to all-time highs. The tensions between Iran and USA is just another smokescreen of what truly is happening. After ECB establishing the negative interest rates, in the meantime, the first banks in the Netherlands has introduced the 0% savings interest rate. Most probably soon enough, the rest will follow. This is due to the new yearly cost for the banks. Concerning banks have to pay approximately, 100K Euro annually to the ECB. In short, if our citizens want to save their money, they will actually have to pay for it. I reckon this is happening everywhere in the EU zone. If you ask me, this is the real reason of the sudden increase of value and interest of the prominent commodities and bitcoin as well. Obviously, informed people are looking for safe havens.

"If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you do read it, you're misinformed,"
~ Denzel Washington ~

Although It's logical that the current leaders and the mainstream media are lying about this. Otherwise it might cause a disastrous effects, like a great depression or worst case scenario, total anarchy.

I'm sorry to tell you, but it's not over yet...EU's moto: "If we're failing, let's do more of the failing!". The EU recently just agreed upon the "Green Deal", which is going to cost EU-citizens tax payers, at least, a whopping 11.000 billion euro project. Yes, you've read it right, it's not a typo, billions. I can imagine people are thinking, "you're crazy, why would they do that?". Unfortunately you can fact check this. I would not mention it, if it wasn't evidently fact checked. Although please do look it up yourself, it's always good to be informed. Most crazy about it, it's all based on fairy tales. But that's another subject I would rather avoid for now.

People are concerned about the huge debt of America. Clearly those people are misinformed about the value of money and how this is being used in the current economies of the 21st century. If you know your algebra, the variables of the equations are currently equal. Since all FIAT currencies are debt. Well, some tried but failed. Like colonel Qadhafi, who tried to introduce gold standards to a united states of Africa. I reckon I don't have to explain what happend after that. Needless to say, It does not matter that the US has a huge debt. Currently it's not about how much debt there is, but the velocity. How fast it is increasing, is more important now these days. We already know by now that every previous US presidents just made sure it didn't crash on their terms. Trump is doing a phenomenal job on decreasing the velocity even more.

Can't stress enough that I truly wish I am wrong with this, don't forget that I live in the EU zone. I'd rather not make money on this, than watching my people suffer. Honestly, I'm hoping for a NExit, get out of this sinking ship called, EU...

If you made it this far, appreciate taking your time. Hopefully this will be helpful to you.

To be concluded...

Comments

I had this view on EU, but at the moment is not breaking yet, we will see
Reply
bonic transparent-fx
@transparent-fx, Yeah very much possible for upside movement, short and mid-term. However my analysis is for very long term. It just entered the Apex. Deadline June 2022. Before that, the inevitability will probably happen.
Reply
Amazing analysis and commentary
Reply
bonic Younis123
@Younis123, Thanks!!
+1 Reply
@bonic, What will give you that indication to enter that short? Once it closes below?
+1 Reply
bonic Younis123
@Younis123, That would be a safe place to short indeed. Otherwise if it does heads to retest the resistance and once it gets rejected, would also be a good spot. The deadline of the approaching apex is approximately June 2022. In the meantime ECB is going to print more money, so there is a probability that the value will rise a bit. But then the inevitable will happen.
+1 Reply
@bonic, ahhh I see now,thanks. Surely if the ECB prints more money, the value of the currency will depreciate as the money supply goes up?
Reply
bonic Younis123
@Younis123, Absolutely, but the new money needs time to get its value from the current money supply.
+1 Reply
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