kwaziphungula
Short

EURUSD: 4h Forming Head and Shoulder

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
a year ago
The right shoulder is not complete yet but I expect it to be a double top before it moves to 1.08234 which is a neckline area which coincide with the daily S2 support and Fibonacci extension of 1.414. On the way down to this support ,I expect a bounce at the 1.8077 - 1.8084 area before a short lived rally to the daily pivot of 1.0912 and after which I expect it to continue to a support of 1.08234. The market could also begin with a gap as the market had not reacted to the unemployment claims yet.

There is a harmonic pattern that is forming on the right shoulder as well but could not put it since the chart will be too messy.
a year ago
Comment: The 1.8077 - 1.8084 area, I meant is 1.0877 - 1.0884, I keep on putting these zeros in the wrong places. If keep on repeating these mistakes I will only mention prices on the chart itself.
11 months ago
Trade closed: target reached: The target of 1.0823 was reached and it would be a good idea to start looking for long opportunities as the rest of the year is forecasted to be long as stated in my other EURUSD 2016 - 2017 Long term Forecast idea
EURUSD : Long term Forecast for 2016 - 2017
stream
a year ago
it will not go under 1.08838
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kwaziphungula stream
a year ago
Hi Stream, appreciate that, however I picked 1.08023 because there is a strong Fibonacci confluence over there that I did not show in the chart. More over the real structural support is even lower at 1.0726 where there is a confluence of Fibonacci and 2 other structural supports. If it breaks the support of 1.0823 brace yourself for 1.0726 which I will then expect it to bounce back and test 1.0823
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kwaziphungula kwaziphungula
a year ago
Sorry I meant I picked 1.0823
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stream kwaziphungula
a year ago
just ignore what the price does under the red line , and place there a long order .. just an advise ..
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stream
a year ago
snapshot
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kwaziphungula stream
a year ago
If you draw a trend line from the spike that touched your red line and connect it to the high on the 22nd you will find that the current prices are just about touching that trend line offering a resistance and most oscillators are reaching over bought conditions there is no foreseen momentum that can cause the shift you expect as far as fundamentals are concerned. The unemployment claims were ok but not too far from expectation which I expect at least to cause the EURUSD to complete part of the leg of the head and shoulder to 1.0723. There is support around 1.0883 I agree and I noted that in my commentary but I do believe it is mid way support and not the change of trend support. I do stand to be corrected, however this is my analysis thus far. Where I agree with your direction and analysis is if after bouncing back from the levels mentioned it breaks 1.1059 then it will be going for the 1.1616 - 1.1760 area.
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stream kwaziphungula
a year ago
I take a look again on eu . I do not intend to trade on short but the original support is 1.6850 so its very possible the range to start from there .My target is 1.1945 then will be a correction ..short .. This is my plan according to daily chart ..
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stream stream
a year ago
There is some movement on 1 h chart in 1.068 area , so that make dout , will go there again or not .. That is the reason i place safety my long order on the high of the support .. .If I am sure , I will short eu one more time .
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kwaziphungula stream
a year ago
Once the 1.1059 break happens I do see a major resistance at 1.1901 - 1.2098 area, however I see even an earlier resistance at 1.1616 - 1.1760 which is supported by market structure based on the broken trend line, so I do advise that if the price breaks by January, look out for the area I mentioned, don't let it reverse your profits. If it breaks much later than that there would be an even lower target at the 1.1285 - 1.1384. For the market to ignore these areas and shoot for 1.1901 - 1.2098 there would have to be some serious negative news coming from the US in January. If that happens then 1.1901 - 1.2098 is your resistance. My trading idea was only on a short term basis where I see a short position, however on a longer range and if the price breaks then your long direction was spot on, as I do see this as well. However I don't have the patience to wait that long. I will go in and out of trades along the way.
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stream kwaziphungula
a year ago
You are absolutely right ..About long term no discussions .. the only my dout is about the short term movement ..will be to 1.068 or not .. . In any case will be a great trading next year , So I wish you Get rich !!!
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kwaziphungula stream
a year ago
The reason why I think for now the trend line upward won't be broken is that on daily chart there was an area of resistance at 1.1005 - 1.1121 which the EURUSD could not break and would need to have reverse to it need to have reversed to 1.0722 - 1.0787 area or 1.0576 - 1.0632 in order for it to find strength to break that trend line and this resistance 1.1005 - 1.1121 area to the up side. It came short of reaching these area but would need to enter one of these areas before finding strength to reverse and break the trend line to the up side.
+1 Reply
stream kwaziphungula
a year ago
This area which you are talking about is already broken .. The market just wants a prove that 1.05 is ok .. that means will be a strong support check in , I am sure of that . So the price not suppose to go to 1.05 , but to its rejective area .. 1.05 + at least 1.5 ..that means 1.065 is a minimum . But the area above 1.1005 is ours already , no problem with that .. eu is going up ..
There is 1 rule on the market .. Every broken support check the previous one .
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Target 1.2050 for 2 months later
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stream IlyasBusraCabuk
a year ago
I am sorry , my mistake ... 1.12 is a resistance ..for now .. eu is going down .. to 1.000..after break will go up for confirmation

but not before that .. rejection is obvious ..
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stream stream
a year ago
snapshot
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stream stream
a year ago
I cant see any better entry for short
snapshot
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kwaziphungula stream
a year ago
It will have to go down first before going up, If you put on your ichimoku cloud on you will see that it broke through the cloud on the 9th and on the 10th encountered the resistance 1.1005 - 1.1121 area and has to rebound to another Fib support zone which coincide with the cloud on a daily chart. The move from Dec 03 to Dec 15 could be Wave 1 and the right shoulder will be Wave 2 broken into A,B,C of which we are beginning wave C which should pierce the cloud and break the neckline before finding power to go up. On the Dec 18th it turned before piercing a major support area and missed it by just 15 pips that is why I am convinced that it must go back to the true support before rallying up. If you put your short order at 1.0879 you are good for a safe 70 pips to the downside, because it would have broken an upward trendline and a 100 pips if you have the stomach for it.
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stream kwaziphungula
a year ago
Thank you .. I have already a short .. I expect going down .. .. 1.069 is my target . .Would you take a look of my latest idea ? I will apreciate
snapshot
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stream stream
a year ago
like i said I have a short , to 1.069
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Piet.Hein
a year ago
Nice view, interesting!
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