RobertPapon

Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (17.08-21.08)

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Summary of last week:
The currency pair tested last week important resistances at levels 1.1129 and 1.1215. The increases were due to improving sentiment around Greece. An additional impetus for growth was the effect of the People's Bank of China, which devalued the yuan. A large part of the market took the bank's activities in China, as a reduction in the chances of an interest rate hike by the Fed in September, which automatically led to strong gains in the EUR / USD pair. End of the week we noted at 1.1111, inter alia, through the confusion around Greece. IMF head Christine Legarda announced after a meeting of finance ministers that Greece will need more aid than previously assumed. It is quite possible that if an aid program is not consistent, it is the IMF did not take part in further aid for Greece.

The economic calendar next week we do not have too much data. However, it will follow Tuesday's US data (building permit). On Wednesday we will base the CPI             from the US. On Thursday, the market will follow the Philadelphia Industrial index and the sale of existing properties in the US. On Friday we will know the GfK consumer climate in Germany.

Market whereas the small amount of data in the next week, may again be interested in Greek problems.


Forecast for Monday:
The currency pair ended the week at 1.1111 which is below the important support at 1.1129. In my opinion, declines may be exacerbated what may first lead to a test level of 1.1078 (38.2% fibo increases from 1.0857 to 1.1215). This level is so important that its defeat could lead to stronger declines. In this case, the supply should lead to declines in the vicinity 1,10-1,1035 (respectively 50% and 61.8% fibo recent increases). Naturally great support to maintain the downward trend will be any negative news on Greece.

Otherwise, if the defense is demand level 1.1078, we should see once again increases the level around 1.1215. First, however, the market will have to overcome Friday's high of 1.1189, which is the local resistance. If you maintain a positive sentiment and break the 1.1215 level, the next target for demand should be the level 1.1277 (maximum of 29 June).
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