QUICk ANALYSIS: EURUSD: 2 possible ways flag will finish

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2356 16 38
After taking a -20 pip loss on my last trade idea on this pair, I have now re-analyzed my wave count and come up with 2 possible scenarios for which I think could lay out the ending of this wave B corrective pattern which is a bear flag that is completing. Once completed, the bear flag will lead to a nice move down in a wave C. I will be looking to catch that move down.

Scenario #1 - Double Combo WXY Finishing with a Ascending Triangle
In the MAIN chart above, I have laid out this possibility. I am leaning towards this scenario as the price action more or less is pointing in that direction. That's not to say that it will happen. But something to look for and be aware of.

Scenario #2 - Straight Double Triple WXY Combo Wave

Either way, I am looking for a fall. Just keep this DAILY chart I posted in mind:

I am now just waiting to see which scenario will play out. Obviously, if prices reach the top TL of the flag and that TL holds, then Scenario #2 will be the first scenario to complete. Even if prices do complete the triangle in Scenario #1, Scenario #2 will have already happened. So what to do? How to know whether to follow Scenario #2 and take a trade when prices hit that upper TL of the flag or wait and see if Scenario #1 triangle forms before taking a trade? It's a good question and no easy answer.

What I will do since the risk will be well within my trading plan is to take a SHORT trade off Scenario #2 completion when prices reach that upper TL provided I get a bearish PA signal and just hold it from there. Why? Because even if the triangle does happen, I would expect that prices should remain below the entry point for my trade. Possibly. There is always the possibility that IF/WHEN that triangle does form, the E point may get broken and a false break may happen that would take prices above and beyond that trade entry wherever it is before dropping.

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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yes agree, I just look for bear in this pair.
thank you sir
sorry.. once again, can not find my question...
Q: how come red c is shorter than red a?
Which red c are you asking about in which chart? There are many red c's...................
+1 Reply
minimax EverythingForex
sorry, u r right.. lets say Scenario 1: red c under (W)
I am counting that as a flat corrective wave. Usually, wave c of a flat will be equal to or longer than wave a of a flat. But not always. One thing you always need to keep in mind is that Elliott rules and guidelines really apply to CASH instruments as Elliott himself has said. Forex is a HIGHLY leveraged trading instrument so there are more instances where the guidelines will need to be relaxed somewhat. Rules are still rules but even then, there are exceptions in forex when applying Elliott's rules.

More important thing to keep in mind and this is just my opinion and how I trade, is this: Does it matter? Does it really matter that the wave c is shorter than the wave a there? Or is it more important that the wave count you use leads you to the right direction? If prices do what I am projecting, will it matter that the wave c was shorter than the wave a? Of course not. It won't matter at all.

I just say this so that anyone reading this knows that is my philosophy about being TOO strict in applying Elliott's rules and guidelines in charting as it leads to too much "paralysis of analysis". So in that sense, I do not consider myself to be an "Elliottician". I just count waves.
+2 Reply
minimax EverythingForex
ok.. thank you for reply.. I do matter about lenght and structure but truth is that after it is done you know what really was..
To each his own. I have no issue that anyone does what they do. If it matters to you, that's great. Always do what works for you. I do and have been doing what works for me for a very long time. And I will never say that my way is the best way. It is the best way ONLY FOR ME and has worked and does work very well as my trades posts show. But good luck with everything.
+2 Reply
minimax EverythingForex
same 2 U
Hi EF, this chart may confirm the last chart that i send you by email.
since price has exceeded the TL(connecting point X 1.1713 and point B 1.1460 in 4H chart ), could it be considered that a bat pattern is forming?
bat pattern forming?
For me, that is not going to be a bat pattern. The C point has a close greater than .886 of the AB leg. Needs to be between .382 - .886 to be valid.
+2 Reply
how about eurusd now? still short?
I don't have any SHORT trades on EUR right now. Will probably wait until after the weekend after I have had a chance to re-analyze this pair before I take any more trades. Maybe.
Buddy, I think this pair is taking off to the topside. 1.20 is not inconceivable, before it revisits the 1,11 - 1,12 range. Your take?
This is a common reaction whenever prices go one way or another. When it starts heading up, bulls will come out and say "it's going up! See?" and when prices move down, bears will come out and say, "See? It's dropping!". Best thing to do is not to overreact to either way. Analyze the charts, find good scenarios for both if possible, and make an educated decision. If you can only see one outcome, then go with it. But make sure you have an exit in case you are wrong. That is how to trade.

Sorry, I know you didn't ask me that but keep in mind, others are reading this too. Like to see a chart with explanations why you would think so? I can tell you that for me, I'm still looking short for the short-medium term. I am analyzing the chart over the weekend to see what I can see so until then, I won't have another update.
+2 Reply
zachlwang EverythingForex
Will work on those charts this weekend.
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