It's finally happening. USDJPY (UJ) is going to drop into the Abyss and EURUSD (EU) will therefore rocket into the sky and perhaps beyond. See my writing style footnote below if the first line somehow bothers you.
Not much time before it starts (maybe it already is) but you will have plenty of time to trade both symbols because I predict EU to start a bull run lasting for almost 2 years and counting possibly up to 2700 pips or more.
Even though everything signals this process has started, pls be highly sceptical at all times. The USD purchasing bull may show up again and do another surprise run like it did a few times this week and every time again surprising me with new forms of price action.
Grab your game! Watch as the trend forms because speculators need to agree on the trend and until then it can be choppy waters. Scalpers may ike this.
Trading 101 sumup follows;
Ask me to detail a subject and I'll publish an idea if I have the time. It's a new idea of me to improve the quality of my ideas and chat messages as I have been told by other traders that I direct everybody into 100% losses :(
If you would like to scalp or day trade and don't know how to trade low volumes then stay away from Mondays and Fridays and trade only London and NY sessions. As the days may shift around due to scheduled process, do a couple of small trades to validate liquidity and therefore your r/r ratio.
Don't be fooled by the likely many signals that the market or its participants have/will set out for you, also known by many as stop hunts, traps, etc. You may already see some of this evidence right now (2.16pm UTC onwards*) similar to what we have seen before and after UJ dropped late November and early December '17, see my ideas for food for thoughts on this. Also back then, the actual process of change seems to start in extra trading hour after market close, which makes you wonder how random the market wants to look.
* Just had a look at 2.16pm UTC and discovered the head hunt is hammer making process. So one may assume it was formed by a programmed algo instead of honest buyers and sellers reacting to price change. Now that I have published this I wonder if someone else has before and if not how long it will take to change.
So start your trades not earlier than Tuesday at London open, (if it's not a holiday, I haven't checked) and do not trade Friday even if it looks like everything will be happening then. If you are confident and testing the liquidity turns out positive then go ahead, but as soon your experience negative change stop right away, call it the day and accept your losses under solid risk management.
If you are a swing trader it's also best to start your trade on Tuesday till Thursday within London or NY session as explained above. Constant liquidity will be in your favour, especially when you trade larger trade unit quantities, think of whole and multiple lots.
1) Buy the low and sell the top. This is obviously true and if applied well, improves you trading performance. How? Well, on a 4H time frame you could just enter wrongly and be looking at red numbers for at least 4 hours, while at the same time missing out opportunities on the other side of the market.
2) Buy the fall and sell the rise... ;)
Ofc you can always post questions in the FX chat room. People there sometimes seem very busy and remotely interested but that is because you may just have missed one of the many that do help out beginners or there is something interesting going on with one of the FX assets. Keep trying!
Cheers, Arnaud
Footnote: One time message on writing style for all my ideas, My apologies for my choice of words, it is my writing style. I like to add a little spice to the mix of the imho somewhat metaphorical stuffy and slow moving industry. My analysis and technical experience are mainly from a much faster moving and progressive industry and sector. Thanks for reading.
Another note: I hit 4k idea doc limit so I used space savers.
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EU did another try to start with this move at NYSE open but because of lack of volumes got easily put back into place and even lower again. It will need larger volumes to be able to continue without being interrupted.
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It's actually only happening just now.
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Every time the signals are stronger we do not give up. The USD raging bull is back. However there is not much room left to push the other majors back into. NZD, CHF and EUR give in a little. To the point that the invisible hand says "Till here and no further Mr Bull". GBP flexes its muscles and start pushing back. UC is moving down, Volatility increases on USDCHF and UJ is pushed away from 110. Will this be the start of the long awaited drop of UJ, and the end of a three month ruling and raging bull?Only time can tell.
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August 8, Asian session. The raging bull showed off again and again and again, up until today. Every time it seems to kickstart a wave of sentiment that then fairly quickly dies. Most of the time it's shorter lived than before. But there are extreme sessions with hours of unseen USD buying power often timed at critical moments for USD bears such as one hour before London open. It occured to me that all signals for the start of UJ Seasonality are present with every cycle opportunity since April but then the raging bull shows up and steals our thunder. He act as a watchdog with very specific targets given by his owner and relentlessly executed by the dog himself.
and i do not beleive in this seasonality, it makes things far too easy, it would be free profit for everyone, markets need to trap a majority through the action of a minority. then the less resistance path but at the same time less predictable move would be exactly this : continuous strength of usd as every retails desperately open Xusd long, and a big surprise to bring confusion with a collapse of usdjpy to bring down all the usual correlations.
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@lapin_eliott, Indeed far too easy. Don't tell everybody though. Let them all join the non-believers club. If it doesn't exist maybe you can set it up and lead them the way to the desert or jungle, somewhere without internet and english speaking people. There you could uphold something like that.
maybe you are making a mistake about the supposed fall of usd, as after all we could have the following scenario : Xusd for X different of jpy will all fall hard again and again, usdjpy will be the only exception (not usdchf), we will have then Xjpy for X different from usd a total collapse. and meanwhile gold and stock market crash .... this is really possible.
It's finally happening. USDJPY 0.63% (UJ) is going to drop into the Abyss and EURUSD -0.28% (EU) will therefore rocket into the sky and perhaps beyond. See my writing style footnote below if the first line somehow bothers you."
The above message is a quote and as you can see the values are inverted from what you predicted. If you are looking at time you surely dont trade. It could take one week or 3 months. I dont really care about time I care about the price. I know where my Stop loss is and if I hit it my trades is out. Real traders dont ask about the time, this is not a driving test, we dont control the market, we just predict to the best of our abilities. I thought the trade below was gonna take 3 months and we hit target in 6 weeks.
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@ChartsOnTime, It's quite normal to ask what timeline you are predicting. If you have no answer you can wait forever and it may always happen that way. My predictions are not forever and yes, I trade. What do you mean by the 'values inverted from what you predicted', trading for this idea has not even started?!
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@ArnaudKleinveld, my usual trade time is 3 months. So I keep a trade open for three months or till target is hit. Most of the times targets are hit way before that. Right now I’m longing eu. My take profit target will activate my shorts. In 2011 I had a short for eu open for 9 months I think or longer. And no you can’t wait forever. You either are in a profitable trade or you are throwing money away in fees. I don’t hold red numbers for long. Green numbers can go of forever. Trader rule is, patience with good trades no patience with bad ones. Most people hold their loser too long and close their winners too soon. Anyways, you know the trading life. Good luck