Kumowizard
Long

Euro weekly complex - Draghi needs a bazooka, or else...

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
295 1 11
As we are approaching ECB rate setting this week, I try to show you a brief picture on weekly charts of EUR crosses.

EURUSD:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish biased, but not obviously bearish: Price is below Kumo cloud, but future Kumo still shades price. Market misses bearish momentum: Chikou Span still not in open space.
- Price "kissed" (retested) previously broken long term bearish trendline last week, but could not break back below 1,0830 key.
- Long term equilibrium is represented by the flat future Kumo ard 1,1085. This is first upper key. Next one is obviously 1, 1400            
- Heikin-Ashi shows hesitation this week. Will it switch to bullish , or will it continue red, with increasing bearish momentum? We will only know by end of this week.

(Please note that we also have confusing signals on the daily EURUSD             chart)

EURGBP:
- Bullish Kumo breakout happened 8 weeks ago, and got nice confirmation. Until Brexit vote GBP will be under pressure. Ichimoku setup is bullish . 0,75 +/- is a buy area!
- Heikin-Ashi signalled exhasution last week at the 0,7800-0,8000 resistance zone , and signals pull back this week. Bullish supports are: 0,7650 (Tenkan), and 0,75 +/- (Kijun and Kumo. Look for buy signals ard these levels!

EURNOK:
- Bullish Ichimoku setup is turning towards a bit neutral as Price started to drop from bullish trend channel top.
- Double (triple?) top ard 9,73?
- As oil             seems to be stabilizing, NOK             may recover a bit more. Possible pull back tgts now 9,14 or 9,00+

EURSEK:
- Tricky, as Ichimoku setup already seemed confirmed bearish at the end of 2015, but Price spiked back above Kumo this year. Ichimoku picture is neutral now: price only slightly below Kumo, Chikou Span is at past candles and within past Kumo, Tenkan and Kijun are also located in Kumo.
- Heikin-Ashi has a bearish bias, but with decreasing momentum.

Riksbank will follow the path of ECB.

EURAUD:
- This was my favorite EUR short (besides EURNOK             ) recently. However we have to be careful here:
- Ichimoku is turning to bearish , but long term bullish trend channel is still in play!
- Horizontal key supp/res is alos close

Further AUD gains seem to be limited. 1,45+ is a strong supp/resistance... unless Draghi and Co. brings out some atomic bazooka.

EURCAD:
- Very nice pull back, but be careful with EURCAD             shorts!
- Ichimoku setup is bullish! Price reached Kumo and bullish trend line support!
- Forward Kumo is thisck and bullish ahead!
- Heikin-Ashi is still bearish , but already shows loss of momentum!
- Tenkan is still above Kijun! No weak bearish cross yet
- Chikou Span hit past candles (and past Senkou B), but with a spot price spike it can easily come back to open space!

Please note that BoC             will likely remain accomodative and dovish!

If anything, then EURCAD             is at a nice risk/reward BUY level!

Conclusions:
1. ECB has to come out with something really big, otherwise EUR will go stronger again.
2. Technically Euro             looks mixed on crosses, but we can not call it bearish in general! ---> Does it mean ECB is fckd anyway, and their policy is close to total ineffective? :-) Well, we have to think about what happend to JPY after BoJ cut rates to negative.
3. Eurozone still have a C/A surplus, which means EUR supportive flow after all.
4. be selective when you trade Euro! Some crosses clearly offer better risk/reward on shorts, some on longs! Try to be correct with timing of any trade entries!

5. The ultimate wisdom: adjust position sizing with the always changing volatility!
Thanks
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