Over on the higher-timeframe picture, however, the weekly chart still shows the buyers and sellers battling for position within supply drawn from 1.1533-1.1278. As we’ve mentioned before, this area has held the single currency lower since May 2015, so the bulls will likely have their work cut out for them if they intend on pushing this market higher! Down on the , price continues to stab into supply given at 1.1385-1.1332.
Therefore, purely from a structure perspective, a break below the 1.1300 line is more likely today in our opinion. However, it could still potentially go either way as a break above the H4 resistance 1.1338 and a subsequent rally to H4 supply at 1.1400-1.1383 would not really alter the aforementioned higher-timeframe structure a great deal.
Given the points made above, we feel there’s opportunity to trade this pair both long and short today with a slight edge, of course, being seen to the downside:
• Watch for price to close above the H4 resistance 1.1338 and look to trade any retest seen thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation preferred), targeting H4 supply at 1.1400-1.1383.
• Watch for price to close below the 1.1300 handle and look to trade any retest seen thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation preferred), targeting H4 demand at 1.1215-1.1226.