ICmarkets

Our thoughts on the single currency...

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
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The aftermath of yesterday’s FOMC meeting which ended with rates left unchanged sparked a relatively volatile reaction, with the single currency quickly striking highs of 1.1360 and lows of 1.1270. Despite this, as can be seen from the H4 chart, price remains trading between H4 resistance at 1.1338 and the psychological support 1.1300. Looking solely at the H4 picture, a break above 1.1338 could set the stage for a continuation move north up to H4 supply coming in at 1.1400-1.1383. A break below 1.1300, nonetheless, is interesting. Yesterday’s low 1.1270 likely consumed a truckload of bids from the H4 demand seen marked with a green circle at 1.1256-1.1278, so a close beyond 1.1300 could force this market down to as far as H4 demand at 1.1215-1.1226.

Over on the higher-timeframe picture, however, the weekly chart still shows the buyers and sellers battling for position within supply drawn from 1.1533-1.1278. As we’ve mentioned before, this area has held the single currency lower since May 2015, so the bulls will likely have their work cut out for them if they intend on pushing this market higher! Down on the daily chart , price continues to stab into supply given at 1.1385-1. 1332             .

Therefore, purely from a structure perspective, a break below the 1.1300 line is more likely today in our opinion. However, it could still potentially go either way as a break above the H4 resistance 1.1338 and a subsequent rally to H4 supply at 1.1400-1.1383 would not really alter the aforementioned higher-timeframe structure a great deal.

Given the points made above, we feel there’s opportunity to trade this pair both long and short today with a slight edge, of course, being seen to the downside:

• Watch for price to close above the H4 resistance 1.1338 and look to trade any retest seen thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation preferred), targeting H4 supply at 1.1400-1.1383.

• Watch for price to close below the 1.1300 handle and look to trade any retest seen thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation preferred), targeting H4 demand at 1.1215-1.1226.
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