Sforex
Long

EURUSD: Signals from Technical, but Fundamental mixed.

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
191 0 0
- Fundamental Analysis

EURUSD             is the most difficult pair to trade currently, I could say that.

Fundamental elements are mixed.

- USDollar             needs to find more momentum to continue its rally, FED still refuse market demand for the first rate hike, and we could wait long long time to see it. while US economic data begin to lost momentum

- ECB is talking about expand QE             . Inflation is still very low, and Germany economy has some problems. EZ data were very negative recent weeks, and if USDollar             was not disappointed, market punished Euro             .

Both FED and ECB have some problems to support inflation, they need inflation to stimulate consumer spending and demand thence speed up grow, but it seems they are failed to do that.

Next week, the main focus is EZ CPI             and US CPI             . Market hopes a positive data to find a clue to trade, but I think inflation once disappointed market.

- Technical Analysis

While Fundamental is mixed, Technical Analysis shows strong support to Euro             .

EURUSD             is captured in the range between: 1.1100 and 1.1440, but I see some positive signals:

Look at on the chart.

- Firstly, RSI indicator : Support at 40 : A strong support, Descending trendling break proving RSI is going up.

- Secondly, SMA50+ SMA100+SMA200 +EMA50 break. EURUSD             moved above those level marking for a change in sentiment : Bullish view is reinforce.

- THE MOST IMPORTANT THING I WANT TO SAY : SMA100 CUT SMA200 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE AUGUST 2014 : A STRONG SIGNAL FOR TREND REVERSE.

- EURUSD             moved once above Kumo cloud .

- Strong resistance zone at 1.1440, EURUSD             hold under this level in this year, I see the break to 1.1700 last month as a failed break, I don't count it.

HERE IS MY VIEW POINT: MARKET APPETITE IS SHIFTING TO EURO             , I WANT TO BUY EURUSD             TO 1.1700 AND PIERCE 1.1440 LEVEL DESPITE OF FUNDAMENTAL MIXED.

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