developeralgo222

EURUSD stuck in Range with a rolling top heading to 1.0864?

Short
developeralgo222 Updated   
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
EURUSD seems to be stuck in range ( 1.1000 to 1.0958 ) with a rolling top due to US Data starting to weaken and DXY troubles . EURUSD has been rejected 4 times at the top i.e its capped at 1.1000

EURO Zone data is getting worse while US Data is starting to show some signs of weakness from imported Global weakness mainly due to trade wars .

ECB wants a weaker EURO but does not want the wrath of Tariff threats from US but at the same time US wants a weaker DXY .

So who will give in this "Battle Royale" ?

Look at what the BIG BOYS( Hedge Funds, Global Banks, Sovereigns, Large Global Companies and Central Banks ) are doing --- They expect the EURUSD to hit 1.0800 due to worsening EURO Zone economies .

Forget what the speculators & Retail traders think because 98% of the time they are completely wrong.
Comment:
After failing to break above the 1.1000 handle, EUR/USD broke below the 1.0945 support level and closed the day at 1.0956 . The market is consolidating the decline just above the 50 SMA on the four-hour chart.

EURUSD has rolled over and the most likely scenario now is that we touch 1.0864 before any rally can be sustained
Comment:
EURUSD falls out of range and then reverses back into the range ( 1.1000 to 1.0958 ) . Now at 1.0984 and seems to be gunning for beyond 1.1000

The surprising issue is that everything about EURUSD and EURO Zone is worsening but yet EURUSD has been well supported. Its almost impossible to price in such bad Economic data . At some point EURUSD will have to give
Comment:
"Battle Royale"

Sellers are just above 1.1000 and buys are just below 1.0940 so the Battle continues until one gives up .

EU ECB wants a weaker Euro but Euro Bulls are trying to do the unthinkable by trying to push the EURUSD higher and go against the ECB's wishes .

Who will win ? Most likely the ECB
Comment:
OIL, GOLD are today trending down and this are usually proxies to EURUSD . The USDJPY is slightly up and USDCHF is flat

Today EURUSD is on its own and doing its own thing disregarding the market sense or fundamentals
Comment:
By Pablo Piovano from FXStreet


EUR/USD has resumed the upside after two daily retracements in a row and it has refocused its attention to the key barrier at 1.10 the figure.

In the meantime, the downside pressure is expected to return to the market after a consolidative phase if spot does not clear this critical barrier in the near term.

In addition, while below the 3-month resistance line, today at 1.1014, the bearish view is expected to remain unaltered.
Comment:
King Dollar has been tumbling even with Worse data from EURO Zone. The EURUSD has clinched the 1.1009 handle and is now above 1.1000 after 5 days of trying but can it hold and push to the upside

US-CHINA Trade negotiations are weighing heavily on what is going on

EURUSD will try and take advantage of that and rally a bit
Comment:
EURUSD at 1.1020 now and rising as Dollar tumbles
Comment:
NOTE:

Either EURUSD will continue to Rally to the upside now that it has gotten above 1.1015 after 2 weeks or it will tumble back to test the bottom at 1.0884 .

Everyone/ Trader/ BIG BOYS know that the EURZONE economies and fundamental data is getting worse. So why would the EURO Rally ? All depends on the US-CHINA trade war , if there is any possibility of a DEAL then EURO will rally and if no deal situation persists then DOLLAR will rally . Its all about GEOPOLITICS at the moment not fundamental
Comment:
EUR/USD is easing from three-week highs in the New York session.

- The US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched analysts’ expectations at 2.4% YoY.
- Earlier in Europe, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) minutes showed opposition to QE, sending EUR/USD above the 1.1000 figure.
Comment:
today , Seeing Large divergence between EURO Index ( EURX) and EURUSD .

starting 6 :00 am EST ( New York Time ) EURX strength was moving up while EURUSD was moving down. Then roles reversed at 11:30 pm EST , EURX has been declining since that time , while EURUSD has been holding steady

The underlying strength of the rally is not broad and therefore be careful if you enter a long position
Comment:
The EURUSD and EURX are 98% correlated all the time
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