EURUSD_Trading idea_Strategically short until proven otherwise

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Hello everyone.

Looks like EURUSD is going to form a temporary bottom here and break higher in attempt to confuse as many traders as possible.

However on 4 hour the downtrend is well established.

Fib is on DAILY chart . Precisely ran from the low of 1.15536 created on 11/07/2017.
to the high of 1.25378 put in on 01/25/2018.

Entry area is general. I will need to see signs of rejection on 4 hour before I jump in.

Stop loss on trade or idea is indefinite. This is a short-term trade. It either works or it doesn't. I will not have my emotional capital tied up if EURUSD decides to test the highs.

T1 1.22180
T2 1.2106

Wait for confirmation before entering. We are entering a COUNTER TREND trade and we should not get greedy. Notice how T2 is slightly before the old major high that still needs to be retested for the market to run higher longer term. If filled I will take half the position off at T1 and trail the other half to T2.
Good luck traders!

If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated!
Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!

Comment: What do you guys think? I'm feeling cautious on this idea after seeing this stochastic...
Comment: We are in the entry zone. Today was not the day to be short however. I will need to see major reversal levels that ARE NOT in aftermarket hours. If we start to sell of into Wednesday (tommorrow) morning I will seriously consider jumping in.
4 hour chart shows price as major 50% fib level, which is where we would have expected price to run to in such a downtrend.

Patience is key.
Trade active: Entry taken on the plunge down. Entry at 1.23300
Trade closed: stop reached: This was an all around bad idea. Daily chart overruled 4 hour chart and pushed market higher.
Comment: After careful analysis of this trade, I realize I had been playing around with the RSI and after looking back at previous trade history I have never been successful with RSI. I also made the mistake of thinking I knew how long this counter trend pullback could last based on my analysis of DXY but I know see DXY is just a directional guide and should not be based strictly EURUSD.
Running longterm fib in purple clearly explains today move. I was correct about the pullback but what in the hell ever made me decide to short IDK. Just distracted trading with college and work. Forgive me gents.
Till next time!
I would have been better off with this entry. I entered 15 hours ago, got stopped out at 1.235. The biggest challenge for me (still) in forex is finding good entries with good RR ratios.
+1 Reply
TElphee Domsax48
@Domsax48, that is the bare bones of being a good forex trader, finding those good RR ratios. I find the best entries looking for areas where the market is going to hurt/confuse as many possible. Set my parameters of validation and let the idea play out.
At this point eurusd has not shown any signs of slowing down at this overhead level so I dare not enter yet. Waiting for solid signs of rejection.
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