In my last post on this pair (see Related Ideas: " ANALYSIS: EURUSD: All Roads Lead To A Wave 3"), I identified a bullish Gartley and a bearish butterfly patterns. In this update, I have removed the bullish Gartley as I do not think it is relevant anymore although it is STILL valid. But as per my possible updated wave count, I don't see prices heading any lower to complete that Gartley. That's why I have removed it. So what you see here is that I have added a POTENTIAL Bearish Deep Crab pattern that will end nearby the bearish butterfly completion as well.
Be careful not to get over-enthusiastic on any trade because this pair is in consolidation mode and therefore prices will swing back and forth. This is what my possible wave count shows. Before either of these 2 patterns will complete, we should see this swinging PA in the form of a smaller contracting triangle before breaking out to the upside to head towards the upper trend line of the larger contracting triangle and the pattern completions.
What's important to keep in mind always is the bigger picture. All this PA is happening within the larger contracting triangle pattern consolidation on the DAILY TF.
Currently, I am LONG and have been holding LONG positions on this pair for weeks now. Although this pair is showing signs of moving upwards within the contracting triangle consolidation (DAILY TF), I am not adding anymore LONGS as I don't need to. But having said that, this is a good place to get LONG if you want to because prices are near the bottom of the larger contracting triangle and showing signs of moving upwards. Also, I do not see any breakout to the downside happening. That's NOT to say it can't happen. Anything can happen.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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It seems that the Pair is forming a bullish shs. If the Formation will be triggered, the longterm downtrend has to be discussed. The possible neckline is based near the trendchannels upper edge. i hold onto my former bearish Analysis for the pair ( - At the moment i see on the one hand the chance for a double bottom with basis 1,08. The target of this formation is 1,1425. -Above 1,1425 there is enough place to make a new high at 1,18. (orange counting)
On the other hand there is the strong momentum and dynamic of the longterm downtrend - we are trading at its trendchanels upper edge. This can perhaps be interpreated as a new anticyclical selling signal as long as we trade below this level.
-Below the last valid orange "3" at 1,08 a drop to 1,04 can be exspected
-below the last valid red "2" a longterm selloff can be exspected with target @ 0,92) , but the possibleshs could Change my view.
EverythingForex
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Appreciate your different point of view. It still hurts my eyes to look at your chart, bro! It's probably because of my poor eyesight! ;-P
catabondu
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Hi,
From what I know your bearish crab is not looking valid, can you tell if you have another method of measurement diffrent then Scott Carney? I like you charts, combination of harmonic pattern and elliot is a very nice aproach.
Thanks
EverythingForex
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Do you mean the crab as it is on my chart above? Or after recent PA? If after recent PA, then no, the crab is no longer valid. I will be updating this pair soon and this analysis is also no longer valid.
Thanks for following me! I appreciate it!
BTW, when it comes to harmonic patterns, I strictly follow Scott's measurements as it pertains to the classic patterns.
It seems that the Pair is forming a bullish shs. If the Formation will be triggered, the longterm downtrend has to be discussed. The possible neckline is based near the trendchannels upper edge. i hold onto my former bearish Analysis for the pair (
On the other hand there is the strong momentum and dynamic of the longterm downtrend - we are trading at its trendchanels upper edge. This can perhaps be interpreated as a new anticyclical selling signal as long as we trade below this level.
-Below the last valid orange "3" at 1,08 a drop to 1,04 can be exspected
-below the last valid red "2" a longterm selloff can be exspected with target @ 0,92) , but the possibleshs could Change my view.