4xForecaster

Is France Party Pooping On The EZ? | $EUR $USD #ECB #EURO #forex

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Friends,

Recently, the EZ fundamentals have been weighed down by Europe's second largest economy, when today France posted economic data bringing deflationary pressures to the forefront. What's worth reframing here, is that this week's significant decline in the EURUSD             Forex leader occurred in spite of Germany's positive data - First question that comes to mind is whether the peripheral bears could potentially break Germany's bullish back. Furthermore, when compared against economic data signaling a potential recovery - however serious or manipulated they might be - from across the US, a second question is whether this potential bullish USD would be sufficient to ignite a market-wide run out of the EUR currency.

ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio stated this past Thursday that the Eurozone was sitting in a "creditless recovery" with very low inflation but that moderate growth would likely result from the broader recovery gaining traction in the currency area, adding:

"We have therefore reaffirmed our forward guidance and stressed that we are determined to act swiftly if required and do not rule out further monetary policy easing."

- Could this be any more telegraphic?

How about his following statement, then:

"he again noted that next month's ECB Staff forecasts for medium-term inflation would be the main criteria for any interest rate decision by the Governing Council when it meets in Frankfurt on June 5."

- I'm willing to wait, but for now, let's look quickly at the technicals.


WOLFE WAVES:

The chart highlights a very relevant technical event, which is that of a Wolfe Waves completion in two separate granular scales, with Point-5's lining up precisely at the same time. The particular nature of Wolfe Waves is that it points to a TP zone along its 1-4 Line. I thought it interesting that the respective profit-taking lines crossed on Bastille Day, on July 14th, 2015 - Next year.


PROP PATTERN & PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL CONVERGENCE:

A prop pattern I own completed right at 1.38319. Here too, I found it interesting that it lined up closely to TG-1 = 1.38690, based on a prop model that I use in my predictive analysis and forecasting. This is the model that I have used to successfully define a reversal top and define targets - See charts under my profile for reference.


OVERALL:

Taken as a whole, the tone of the model is neutral to bearish , whereas the patterns are pointing to a degradation of the pair. But, in closing, here is what ECB Weidmann said this week:

"Moreover, the real effective exchange rate of the euro             is approximately where it was also at the start of Monetary Union."

- Does he mean back down to 0.89000?

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

Twitter: @4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
18 JUL 2014 - Update:

--------------------------------------
From Twitter:

$EURUSD right at long-term support: Make or break |

https://www.tradingview.com/v/TAM76VOo/#.U8lcxSmH5jE.twitter
via @tradingview

$EUR $USD #ECB #EURO #forex
------------------------------------

David Alcindor
Reply
21 MAY 2014 - Midday Update:

From Twitter:

"$EURUSD Midday Update: A major move below 2-4 Line validates bearish "Bastille Day" forecast scenario -
snapshot
@tradingview"

snapshot


While the move in the arrow emphasizes the directional bias, it is not meant to define a time-based forecast. The "Bastille Day" event that is projected to define an abysmal value ob July 14th, 2015 (a little over a year from now), is coincidentally the product of my prop predictive/forecasting model.

- Still, bears are coming in force, shouting: "Aux armes, citoyens!"

David Alcindor
Reply
alex.a 4xForecaster
"Surement! Aux armes, citoyens"
+2 Reply
"L'etandard sanglant est leve!"
+1 Reply
Mirandole PRO 4xForecaster
Bonjour de France :)
+1 Reply
Salut Serge. De quelle coin viens-tu?
Reply
Mirandole PRO 4xForecaster
Salut David. Je suis de Paris. Je passe en MP.
Good luck to all :)
+1 Reply
Serge,
c'est quoi le MP?
Reply
alex.a 4xForecaster
But, 1.28 is simply too far fetched prediction. Perhaps, anything further below 1.30 at this year is somehow Eurozone collapse scenario again and I don't think it would.
+1 Reply
In June 2010, when price went as low as 1.8754, the market would have said: "simply too far fetched prediction" regarding the 1.49289 high that it reached in less than a year. Same as the abysmal target I gave about bitcoin, when it was so high, and I gave a low target. Point is, price does what it wants. It's especially good at surprising people. The only real problem is the trader's ability to bridge the gap between a current price level and a forecast price level before price walks across that bridge. I often encounter the same comment as the one you made.

Following are examples of forecasts I made which produced lots of incredulous comments and sometimes insults:

1 - UK 100: After hitting 6802 forecast, I gave an abysmal 6419 target among three others ... I hit all four targets:
Chart: http://on.fb.me/1dIweoI

Quickly, here are other ones among many others that caused similar comments:

1 - EURCHF = 130 pips
http://on.fb.me/1cDgk0n

2 - USDCHF = 142 pips:
http://on.fb.me/IG5QBK

3 - EURUSD = 174 pips
http://on.fb.me/1dUZKw5

4 - NZDJPY = 339 pips
http://on.fb.me/IHVqS0

5 - AUDUSD ... 643 pips!
http://on.fb.me/1kDHbdB

There are many more, but most important, the distance from the current price level to the forecast level that got reached eventually is not what matters. What matters is that our thinking process inherently forbids us to fathom the possibility of "excessive" gains. So, instead, we assign a negative connotation to it.

Best is to have a system that you trust, then plan the trade through it, and finally trade the plan.

Distance is time, and we interdict ourselves to "lose" it. Nothing really takes or loses time. We merely have to give it, as in "give it time". It's amazing how closer and sooner things get without minding it.

David Alcindor
Reply
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