FX:EURUSD Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Some friends asked me yesterday why did EURUSD moves so much higher from the Lows of sub 1,3650? What was the reason behind this move? My answer is simple, and since I do not care much about fundamentals when observing charts and price action (fundamentals just confused me too many times and too early), the answer is pure technical: the Kumo (Cloud) was too thick below the price candles. Normally for first time is is very difficult to break through. However what we have seen in ytdays px action is a kind of Kumo and Kijun pull back so far, which is ntg else but a sell opportunity for those who initially missed the breakdown two days ago. Tenkan still trades below Kijun, cross happened within the cloud, so this is a medium sell signal. Future Kumo is and pointing down. DMI and ADX slowly picking up. These signals on the 4 Hrs time frame are supported by one very important new signal on the daily chart! did a cross, which means the prev small is likely over. Sticking to my ytday recommendation on USD, I sized up EURUSD shorts too above 1,3700. Initial stops now ard 1,3780-1,3805 levels.
I'm no expert; and nobody knows the future, but I agree it will fall. It hasn't made higher highs since the 24th, but plenty of lower lows. But again, my opinion would be that it goes down, but not right out of the gate. I think it will do a dance about where it's at for a few hours before falling later in the NY session.
Well, for now this trade is not valid any more. I tried to add to shorts on the pull back, but got stopped above the Kijun Sen + some buffer. The way I trade any instruments, on EURUSD now I have to wait for another valid sell setup. Unfortunately it is very difficult to read it now. After recent move, it has rather bullish characters than bearish, but in fact if you look at the daily chart, EURUSD has not really done any serious moves for the last 4 months, only trades in an appr. 300 pips range +/-. It is changing its face too quickly, tricking everybody at least once in every 10 days :-)