Looking to take a short. Missed the rising head and shoulders pattern that broke around 1.385 which was also retested on the 25th. Taking more of a technical approach to this trade despite my bias towards the US and falling UST 10 YEAR
Comments
SwingAndPip
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Be Careful about such a tight stop though on monday German news comes out which may spark a lot of volatility. German news tends to be pretty good and with historical considerations I think there is still a lot of growth. The EU as a whole however is deteriorating rather quickly and I would put an 80% chance on the ECB moving towards some type of forward guidance whether it be rate cuts or stimulus. But the ECB tends to disappoint.
In the short term this is a good technical move.
The ECB meeting/US Data will really determine where this pair is headed in the medium term.
Mirandole
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But we told me not to trade the news, only follow charts analysis. But I'm cool to know more about country economy to know where to go in future.
SwingAndPip
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Yeah global macro is extremely hard but you can tell from charts what the genius's and banks are thinking most of the time. Its good to incorporate a bit of both in my opinion. Global macro is something I am still trying to grasp my mind around it's extremely hard to predict economic news however.
Mirandole
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Ok ! By the way, it's pretty good to look at it just to know, what is happening out charts xD.
I will look to the news so. Where do you get your info ? WSJ ?
Mirandole
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I mean where do you read this kind of news ?
SwingAndPip
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I just get all of the news from watching Bloomberg TV or Bloomberg updates from my terminal. But you can find updates on dailyFX.com they send out the alerts lag in terms of a timely manner ranging from 10-30 minutes late.
Mirandole
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Thx ! I wish you the best in trading :)
SwingAndPip
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Like I mentioned there was a lot of volatility and this trade was stopped out, waiting for news tomorrow before entering
SwingAndPip
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Hey Serge!
Well in short a confluence zone is a part of fibonacci analysis. It is when we have multiple retracement levels as support or resistance in that area. As you can see above that is a zone of resistance so we know that price SHOULD NOT go in that area and if it does than it invalidates the downward trend. If you would like to learn more about fibonacci analysis I encourage you to read Constance browns Fibonacci Analysis you can search it on Google and there is a free pdf version that includes harmonic and gann analysis as well.
In the short term this is a good technical move.
The ECB meeting/US Data will really determine where this pair is headed in the medium term.