DaChi

INTERMARKET - DOLLAR NEARS 13-YEAR HIGH AS EURO WEAKENS

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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One of the big intermarket stories is continued strength in the U.S. Dollar. The monthly bars in Chart 4 show the U.S. Dollar Index ending the week just shy of a new 12-year high. One of the big reasons for that is the continuing drop in the Euro . The blue monthly bars in Chart 4 show the Euro on the verge of hitting a new 12-year low. Although all other major currencies are falling, the Euro has the biggest influence on the trend of the USD (56%). The main reason for their opposing trends in expectations for the Fed to start raising rates in December, while the ECB is expected to announce more monetary easing, possibly as early as this Thursday. That has a lot of other intermarket influences. For one thing, the strong dollar is keeping downside pressure on commodity prices, and stocks tied to them. Commodity deflation in turn is helping keep global bond yields down, including Treasuries. Negative yields in Europe are also helping to keep Treasury yields down. That helps explain the recent drop in the yield curve.

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