Up and down. Up and down. Seems the market is as confused as you are lately, right? Not surprising given all the conflicting views both technical and fundamental that everyone has. Well, let my analysis try to shed some light on what's going on and what may happen next.
For those of you in a rush or just don't like reading through my long detailed analysis, I believe prices are still heading down....for now! But the downside is limited. There are 3 that all will complete at/near an upward sloping that could be defining the current consolidation wave this pair has been in for a while now. When prices reach this area, I will be expecting some sort of upward price reaction.
Since my headline speaks about patterns showing the way, let me get right into that. The 3 patterns (all of course) are:
1. a (better visible on the
2. A (in green on this 4HR chart)
3. a (better seen on the 1HR chart)
Both the and the would complete within the PRZ of the smaller . They would also both complete actually somewhat below the lower of the current consolidation wave. But that is not all that unusual as "fakeout breakouts" often happen. Especially since there's been some days of consolidation now down where prices are currently. I imagine this has caused a lot of anticipation of a downside breakout occurring soon.
OVERVIEW - BEARISH
This MONTHLY chart shows that this pair has been in it's corrective phase for some time now and in my count, it is completing the wave C of the second double pattern. Keep in mind that this is a MONTHLY chart and that any price movement is still rather large. Having said that, looking at the "area of focus", you see a possible consolidation pattern. Possibly a forming. Some more downside price movement may be forthcoming as this indicates that this wave C is not yet finished. When this correction is finished, I'll be expecting a very strong impulse wave up that will take prices to new highs. But that is still a ways off.
DAILY CHART - OVERALL BULLISH
When I say "overall bullish", I DON'T mean to expect prices to head north now. Overall, I am expecting prices to go down to complete the patterns and then head north.
1HR Chart - POTENTIAL Trend-Continuing Cypher
Here's closeup of the that may form and head prices down towards completing the 3 patterns. I will focus more on this should it look to complete in a separate post.
I'm looking to go SHORT if the trend-continuing should complete BEFORE prices head down towards the 3 patterns. Of course, when prices do make it down to those 3 patterns, I'll be looking to go LONG.
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