EURUSD: A strong signal for trend reverse

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
584 3 4
One year since August 2014, SMA100 cut SMA200 once marking a strong signal of trend reverse.

In 2014, when SMA100 cut SMA200, Euro             lost 40% its value, now the cut happens again. Is it a strong signal for Euro             recover ?
USDJPY, USDCHF, EURUSD didn't benefit much from the USD weakness last week, so the question is: If USD weakness persists, can the commodity currencies continue to absorb all the USD selling or will EURUSD be forced higher? Also, if EURUSD goes up (and USDJPY goes down), that means stocks will go down. Will stocks go down with rising commodities?
Sforex PipPirate
Likely if Dollar down, carry trade could come back commodity currency such as Aussie, Kiwi because rate of those countries is still higher than US.

I think commodities found bottom and begin to rally but the rally is limited because the commodity demand is still low cause of global slowdown.

And stock.

US stock could benefit from FED hesitation.

Low rate means low borrow cost, so US Equity gets benefit from it , so the rally is understandable, recent rally in stock proved this.
So then the EURUSD goes sideways or slightly upward? It's hard to see the EURUSD making much progress if the EURAUD and EURNZD continue to fall. Then again, if EURGBP can get over 74 and EURCHF can get over 1, then that should help EURUSD.
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