On the monthly chart, a possible Head and Shoulders pattern has formed a while ago (2003-2015). Price is currently in resistance zone (former support) and approaching the neckline , the downward trendline and the 50% fib level (1.21346). Now looking for a break upwards or a test of these levels of interest followed by a downward move. Possible events that could trigger such a move could be the tax bill in the US (pass or no pass), research regarding the US elections, political changes in Europe or the FED or ECB monetary policies.
This analysis is for the Long-Term.
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