Looking at the big picture is usually a good idea so I thought I'd give it a go! Is the picture clearer now for me after doing so? I'm not quite sure but I think analysis paralysis is slowly setting in... The only thing I'm sure of now is that I'm not very sure of anything anymore... I guess that's just as it stands right now with this pair!
I managed to identify several important levels though, which i'll be watching whilst continuing to trade based on setups on smaller timeframes.
Most of my analysis is on the chart. One question mark for me since I'm not familiar with the theory yet: would someone confirm that the corrective structure on my chart could actually be an ABC correction (in EW terms)? The harmonic pattern I drew is ofcourse purely theoretical/hypothetical/premature and what more... (if I even drew it right?)
Conclusion: I am currently neutral but am leaning towards the "down" side for the longer term! The corrective structure/retracement story with the flag appearing looks like a nice setup but my feeling says that it would then have to happen quite soon (anyone have data on how long flags should be approximately in relation to their poles?) or it would become quite a long flag... Ofcourse that longterm upward trendline on the monthly charts could hinder further downside and a move towards parity!
The 38.2 Fib level with completion of the AB=CD still looks attractive to the upside though for the short term!
Sidenote: One important lesson I learned in the past couple of days/weeks is that one always tends to expect things to happen right away! What I mean is: after having identified a pattern (or others doing it for you, thank you Tradingview members :-) !) and having thought up a possible setup based on that pattern one tends to disregard the timeframe it took to develop the pattern, and thus also ignoring what a realistic timeframe would be for the further setup to unfold! I guess we are just impatient creatures... So it's as they say: patience is key. And stepping back once and a while and looking at the bigger picture should certainly help to put things in perspective!
Please feel free to comment, criticize or like my ideas! Taking some time of the charts now, hoping the analysis paralysis will wear off soon...
Comments
KVE
⋅
Chart looks kinda cluttered, wasn't like that when I drew it, it gets kinda stretched when I publish it...
Here it is without the labels, hope it looks better...:
Found this website on patterns and also how to trade them, very useful info: finvids.com/ I'm not affiliated in any way, just thought it was useful to share!
Here it is without the labels, hope it looks better...: