TARGET GOT HIT DEAD-ON; WOLFE AWAITS VALIDATION: Overnight, price fell further hitting the Qual-Target dead-on at the tip of its bar, and then receding back into the overhead geometry.
However, the dominant geometry in the field remains an unanswered Wolfe Waves ("WW"), with its 1-4 Profit Line extending its arm, waiting for validation - Whether this could occur or not remains secondary though, since the Predictive/Forecasting Model was able to preempt a profitable price action.
TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS:
At this point we are looking at two possible scenarios.:
1 - One in which a reactive rally occurs, and price retraces 50% of the prior swing low,
or
2 - Price engages into further declining moves, once it uncoils from the current geometry (Elliott Waves' Regular Flat, perhaps?), and hits the "Worst-Case Scenario" (see original analysis here: tradingview.com/v/PJIYoBPO/ ) Line at 1.26696, and WW's 1-4 Line, before retracing 50%.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL INDICATES FURTHER DOWNSIDE:
Of the TWO scenarios considered, Predictive/Forecasting Model indicates that current price action is not likely to rally further than 1.29757, and that further downside is expected.
This would effectively carve out a cluster from which, departure would likely bring price towards TG-x = 1.26696. However, the placement of this line precedes that of the 1-4 Line, therefore, it will be a matter of Model vs. Pattern as to whether price should decide to carve further downside and validate the WW's 1-4 Profit Line.
OVERALL:
As per Model, expect further downside, as long as the current overhead data remains unsurpassed at 1.29757
"Look for a conclusive completion of a WW or EW's Ending Triangle.
Internals from this DAILY would be best resolved using a H4 level.
The last IMP move (long, deep verticla bar before the highlighted circle) would represent a tipping end for a Wave-3. So, let Wave-4 and Wave-5 develop FIRST AND FOREMOST before starting plotting a WW or EW's Ending Triangle.
This would help you avoid chasing a geometric pattern all the way down to TG-x = 1.26696, IF price was to ever visit this level.
David Alcindor"
-----------------
David Alcindor
IvanLabrie
⋅
Do you ever get tired of dead on hits David? :D
4xForecaster
⋅
Hi @IvanLabrie - I'm currently on vacation taking a little break. Glad it hit it dead-on. I developed the Predictive/Forecasting Model to give me time to do other things. I never really get tired of it. But I am looking forewarn to learning at instances where it was incorrect, so that I can keep on refining it - David
4xForecaster
⋅
23 SEP 2014 - Note:
Daily notes, technical commentaries, lessons and pearls will be provided in the "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" chat room. Feel free to follow these added details there (Link: tradingview.com/chat/ Only significant technical events will be posted in this present discussion thread, so as to avoid too much unnecessary technical information for the trader and chartist interested only in major technical events.
EURO and Gold have a shared correlation with US Dollar. A rise in the USD will carry both Gold and EUR in the same direction to one another, as they both move opposite to USD.
David
MagnusTradingGroup
⋅
look like we might drop even down to 1.222 based on the rising wedge target ... that slope is steeper than expected. any news/fundamentals supporting this decline ? anything related to FED ?tradingview.com/v/MaPXnc65/
4xForecaster
⋅
@MagnusTradingGroup - So sorry I did not see your chart. Looks like it dates back to 6 days ago. Did not mean to ignore.
... Indeed, price keeps on creeping down. Nice chart. Wondering what the focal point is (origination of all the lime-green lines).
David
MagnusTradingGroup
⋅
Thanks David!
The green lines were just there to show the decreasing slope of last crashes to estimate the slope of the next (current) crash.
The crashes seem to happen kind of cyclic.
The main idea though was the rising wedge. many people don't even bother looking for longterm paterns like this.
How low do you think will it drop ?
IvanLabrie
⋅
I'm getting a tentative ceiling at 1.29804, I'm considering entering a short once we approach that area. In your opinion, what's the dominant timeframe David?
From Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Chat Room - Link: tradingview.com/chat/
--------------------
"Look for a conclusive completion of a WW or EW's Ending Triangle.
Internals from this DAILY would be best resolved using a H4 level.
The last IMP move (long, deep verticla bar before the highlighted circle) would represent a tipping end for a Wave-3. So, let Wave-4 and Wave-5 develop FIRST AND FOREMOST before starting plotting a WW or EW's Ending Triangle.
This would help you avoid chasing a geometric pattern all the way down to TG-x = 1.26696, IF price was to ever visit this level.
David Alcindor"
-----------------
David Alcindor