Weekly Closing price: 1.1565
Flavor for EUR/USD longs soured over the course of last week after jabbing the underside of a seen at 1.1717-1.1862, forcing the unit beneath support (taken from the low 1.0340). Should price extend losses this week, the expectation is for a test of support at 1.1461. Having seen this line represent a STRONG barrier of resistance from 2015 through to mid-2016, a push higher from this level is highly likely.
Tuesday’s pin-bar candle formation that formed off the underside of supply at 1.1790-1.1732, as you can see, provoked a healthy selloff on this timeframe last week. Interestingly, this has placed a triple-bottom support at 1.1526 within striking distance, which happens to converge with an completion (see green arrows).
Headline payrolls missed expectations on Friday at 157k in July (consensus 191k), along with both the jobless rate and average hourly coming in as expected (3.9%/0.3%). The report sparked an immediate round of buying, though was swiftly limited by the 1.16 handle, pushing the shared currency deeper into the walls of demand coming in at 1.1550-1.1576. Beyond this area, traders’ crosshairs are likely fixed on the Quasimodo support at 1.1540, followed then by the psychological support 1.15 (not seen on the screen).
Areas of consideration:
Longer term, the daily triple-bottom support at 1.1526 is likely on the radar for many this week. While this is a beautiful level with a firm approach in the shape of an formation, traders should also pencil in a possible fakeout beneath this level to the weekly support mentioned above at 1.1461. Note this weekly level also boasts a 161.8% daily Fib ext. point at 1.1442 taken from the same high as the daily at 1.1790.
Intraday (H4), we’re expecting price to run stops beneath both the current H4 demand at 1.1550-1.1576 and nearby H4 Quasimodo support at 1.1540, due to daily support waiting at 1.1526. Given the triggered stop-loss orders likely providing liquidity to buy for traders with big pockets, and the daily converging with a daily approach, 1.1526 could be a level to consider possible longs from today/early this week – see pink arrows (as for stop-loss orders, it may be best to wait for a H4 formation to form and place stops in accordance with the pattern). The ultimate upside target from 1.1526 can be seen around daily supply mentioned above at 1.1790-1.1732.
Today’s data points: Limited.